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Stagnation in Ukraine: Aside from minor shifts in the front around the embattled Donbass town of Bakhmut, the situation in the war-torn country appears to have fizzled out. Kiev wants to change that with a spring offensive and regain the upper hand. However, according to Ukrainian security chief Oleksiy Danilov, only five people know exactly when, how and where this counter-offensive will begin.
Whether Andriy Chernyak (52) was one of them, the officer of the Ukrainian secret service did not disclose in an interview with Blick. But Chernyak makes one thing unequivocally clear: “All the experts will soon be amazed when they see what we do. The counter-offensive will be a real firework, a violent thing for the Russian occupiers! »
Ukraine relies on the element of surprise
Last summer, Ukraine recaptured large areas around the city of Kharkiv in the northeastern part of the country from Russian attackers in a major assault that took all sides by surprise. International observers actually expected an offensive in the south of the country around the now liberated city of Kherson. “Of course we want to use this surprise effect now too,” says Andriy Chernyak.
The Ukrainian counterattack could go in any direction at any time. “Our secret services monitor the enemy around the clock. As soon as we detect a weak point, we strike immediately,” says Chernyak.
Experts suspect that after the end of the muddy thaw phase (called “Rasputitsa” in Ukraine), Ukraine could launch a major attack in the southeast of the country towards the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol. Ukraine would thus break Russia’s land connection with the occupied Crimean peninsula. Moscow would have little opportunity to supply its troops in Crimea.
The Russians are fighting with a new army
Secret Service agent Chernyak would not comment on this plan. “How big and successful the counterattack will be depends on how much ammunition, tanks and air defense systems we get from the West. The more you send, the better for us.”
Ukraine needs all the more support because the Russians have not slept either, says Chernyak. “They have carefully studied our attacks over the past few months.” The Russian army is not the same as it was a year ago. When Putin’s troops invaded his country in February 2022, they had no idea if they had enough equipment, says Chernyak. “Now they have adapted. This shows, for example, the brutal tactics of the human attack waves with which the Wagner troops fight in Bachmut. »
But the Russians have not only worked on their attack. Defensively, they are also in much better shape than they were in the last Ukrainian counter-offensives in the summer of 2022.
This is evident from the evaluations of the American defense expert Brady Africk. Africk analyzed all Russian defensive walls and anti-tank barriers (so-called “dragon’s teeth”) behind the war front and plotted them on a map. The map shows that the Russians built huge fortifications, especially around the entrance to the Crimean peninsula and around the occupied city of Melitopol. It will not be an easy task to break through them, even with the main battle tanks supplied by the West.
Without Western fighter jets it will be difficult
“That is precisely why we now need F-16 fighter jets,” said Yuriy Ignat (45), colonel of the Ukrainian air force, talking to journalists this week, which also included Blick. The old American fighter jets, of which there are still about 4,500 scattered around the world, are also needed for Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. The fighter jets could launch missiles and precisely destroy Russian positions.
Leaked documents in the US recently showed that Ukraine could run out of ammunition for its air defense systems as early as mid-May. “If the Russians start attacking us more with their fighter jets, it will be devastating. The destruction will be ten times greater than the missiles they are using now.”
Therefore, says Colonel Yuriy Ignat, “the F-16 will become the weapon of our victory.” Sure, Moscow would probably “panic” if Western Ukraine actually sent such fighter jets, Ignat admits. But at this crucial stage of the war, Russian sensitivities simply cannot be taken into account.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
