Why Vladimir Putin needs the Wagner mercenaries They fight for their slain men

Yevgeny Prigozhin slandered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The head of the Wagner troop insulted the Russian army and allegedly even offered the Ukrainian secret service to betray Russian positions in exchange for a withdrawal from Bakhmut. At least that’s what the Washington Post reports.

It would actually be expected that Prigozhin would have to be put against the wall for treason and that his mercenary group would have to be disbanded. But “Putin’s cook” apparently can do anything. Andrei Soldierov and Irina Borogan explain why this is so in the magazine “Foreign Affairs”.

The four centers of power in Russia

There are currently four centers of power in Russia: first, the military intelligence agency, the GRU. Second, the army itself, third, the FSB, the civilian counterpart of the GRU, and fourth, Putin. These four power blocs do not work together harmoniously at all. Above all, the generals and the regular army form a kind of state within a state. “The army has a tradition of doing everything it can to ensure that the outside world knows as little as possible about it,” said Soltov/Borogan. “This means that the usual government and public scrutiny of the military – be it through parliament, the judiciary or the media – simply does not exist in Russia.”

After taking office, Putin tried to get a grip on this state within a state. So he installed an outsider, his former KGB friend Sergei Ivanov, as defense minister. He tried to push through a comprehensive reform of the military – and failed. Putin had to fire him in 2007.

Shoigu, the current defense minister, is also not from the ranks of the military. His position with the generals is therefore manageable. In addition, their power increases with the duration of the war. “Putin knows that the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to control his generals,” Soltov/Borogan said.

Appearance of the Wagner mercenaries. Their patron saint is the GRU and the Spetsnaz, an elite military unit. Under Shoigu, both gained momentum. They were important factors in the conflicts in Syria and Crimea. Initially, however, in secret, because officially mercenaries are still banned in Russia.

In 2015, the online portal fontanka.ru first reported on Wagner and also disclosed that Dmitry Utkin, a former Spetsnatz commander, was their military leader. Today, Prigozhin advertises his troops with huge posters in Moscow and has them celebrated as heroes on state television.

That private mercenaries support the official army is not reserved for the Russians. The Americans also used Blackwater, a private army, in Iraq. However, Wagner’s predecessors go back further. They date back to the time of the Soviet Union. Stalin used Russian mercenaries against Franco’s troops in the Spanish Civil War. “For the GRU, the Russian experiment in the Spanish Civil War became a convenient excuse to justify the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine,” said Soldierov/Borogan. “The Kremlin bluntly claims it’s another fight against fascists.”

At the moment, the Wagner mercenaries are not only active at the front in Bachmut. They also counterbalance the autocratic generals. “For Putin, the Wagner team has become a crucial tool to keep a grip on the military, which he sees as a potential threat to his power,” said Soltov/Borogan.

At the same time, Prigozhin has become a kind of court jester in the Kremlin. That too has a tradition in Russia. Peter the Great, who repeatedly cites Putin as his role model, also thought he was stupid. His name was Alexander Menshikov and he was the most powerful prince at court at the time, but he was not a member of the Russian aristocracy either. Like Prigozhin, he was blindly devoted to the Tsar and was considered brutal and ruthless.

But Putin is not Peter the Great, and Prigozhin is becoming an increasingly expensive fool. Like Menshikov, the ex-convict is despised by the elite. Therefore, he should not become a political threat to Putin. But should he lose the battle of Bachmut – which seems quite possible at the moment – Putin could drop him. He would then have senselessly sacrificed tens of thousands of human lives and senselessly burned large stocks of ammunition. And Putin’s loyalty to his subordinates is limited.