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For more than a year, bloody fighting has been going on in Ukraine. Marcus Keupp (45), military economist at ETH Zurich, is convinced that Russia’s fate is already sealed. In early February, Keupp said Ukraine will have defeated Russia by October.
Now Keupp has spoken out again. The end of the war could come even sooner. Because Putin is using up so many reserves that his troops will soon have no choice but to “dig in”.
Reserves are dwindling
According to his analyses, it should have been fought quickly for the Russians. According to experts, Russia will soon lose 10,000 heavy weapon systems. “This is a trend that Russia simply cannot keep up with,” the military economist explained in an interview with ZDF.
It is only a matter of time before Putin’s reserves are completely exhausted and Russia is out of heavy equipment. The military economist speaks of the Russian strategy as a “disaster”. It is a “massive sacrifice of reserves” for “minimal progress”. Keupp continues: “It has nothing to do with military logic.”
On the other hand, Ukraine is receiving new shipments of weapons from the West. “Until now, Soviet equipment fought against Soviet equipment, but that is now changing,” says Keupp. “Ukraine is moving from old Soviet technology to Western technology, especially Western main battle tanks and infantry vehicles.” Russia, on the other hand, has to fall back on increasingly older tank models due to huge losses. This technological effect should not be underestimated.
According to Marcus Keupp’s prognosis, the Ukrainian counter-offensive should begin in mid-April. Then it will become clear what effects Ukraine’s technological superiority will have on the course of the war. Dark scenario for the Russians: “All they can do is dig,” says Keupp.
The Russians wouldn’t last long. The loss rate on the Russian side, which is already high, would only increase again. In his eyes, victory for the Ukrainian side is only a matter of time. (lia)
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
