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How long will the war last? Apparently no longer than three years. The Kremlin certainly assumes that.
Russia’s Duma, or lower house, was given a draft law for consideration on Monday. The content: an increase in the conscription age. More specifically, the bill provides for an immediate increase in the maximum age for conscription from 27 to 30, while the minimum age for conscription is raised from 18 to 21. All this with an annual increase of one year between 2024 and 2026.
In other words, the men eligible for conscription will each receive three, two and one year deferrals – while the current generation of conscripts still face heavy fighting in Ukraine. From this, military analysts at the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) conclude the following: “The Kremlin probably assumes that the war in Ukraine will not last longer than the next three years.”
“The Kremlin may be trying to protect a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social consequences of the attrition in Ukraine by limiting those consequences to a specific generation of Russians,” the ISW military experts write.
Scapegoat for the slow advance of the troops
The bill comes from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (67). Once a close friend of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70), their relationship is now broken. The reason is the slow war in Ukraine. For this, Shoigu must serve as a scapegoat.
The ISW experts interpret Shoigu’s initiative as meaning that the Kremlin wants to cover the immediate needs of the army in Ukraine – and reduce the needs in the coming years.
Kremlin shuns “full mobilization”
In addition, the proposed increase in the age limit for conscription is another step to prevent a full mobilization of troops. “It suggests that the Kremlin is still very reluctant to fully mobilize.”
The 67-year-old already proposed raising the conscription age at a meeting of the Ministry of Defense in December. Russian officials have since expressed mixed opinions on whether that increase should apply to the upcoming spring and fall drafts, respectively.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
