Ukraine is out of men and ammunition – will the leopard get there in time? 10 pictures of the cold in the US and Canada

It’s hell on earth: the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has been one of the most disputed places in Ukraine in recent months. Many houses have been destroyed, entire streets have been bombed and most of the inhabitants have long since left the city.

In many streets the Ukrainian defenders dug trenches and set up defensive lines. The city is now a fortress that can successfully defend Ukraine. Still.

Because Russia is preparing to take the city again in the coming weeks. Putin’s insidious plan should become clear at the latest at the start of the expected spring offensive: he wants to overrun the Ukrainian defenders and suffocate them with the sheer size of the army, as long as Ukraine cannot resist him with heavy fighting equipment.

Has the West, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), reacted too late and delayed delivery of tanks for too long?

The toll of blood on both sides is already high, and Bachmut has long been considered the meat grinder in this war. Military experts report battles as in World War I. The Ukrainians hold out in trenches in early January in temperatures as low as minus twelve degrees, in a mixture of mud and snow.

The Russian army repeatedly sent new waves of soldiers to attack them, rush into the Ukrainian barrage and fire on the Ukrainian positions with artillery. Bakhmut has long become a terrible symbol of the horror of the Russian offensive war.

Has the West hesitated too long?

But the coming weeks are likely to get even worse – also because there is not much Ukraine can do to counter Putin. The main battle tanks of Western design are now being delivered. However, this creates several potential problems for Ukraine:

First, the heavy equipment from the west is probably coming too late. Second, the number of tanks is manageable at just over 100 units. In other words: Western aid is too little and arrives too late to be able to change anything on the battlefield in the short term. The Abrams and Leopard 1 tanks may not arrive in Ukraine until the fall or even later. This is not good news for Kiev.

The only hope is that the previously calculated delivery dates were often undercut by the West. So it is possible that the tanks will arrive earlier. Exact dates are not known, not least because the Western alliance does not want to give Moscow a tactical advantage. But even then, the Ukrainian soldiers would first have to be trained on the weapon systems – which in turn takes up valuable time.

It urgently needs ammunition

However, the problems for Ukraine do not end there. Because in addition to the much-discussed tanks themselves, the country needs one thing above all in its defensive battle: ammunition.

What good is the Ukrainian army if it has the most modern weapon systems in the country, but at the same time cannot shoot at anything? This becomes clear with the anti-aircraft vehicle Gepard. Attempts by the German government to recruit ammunition in Brazil and Switzerland, for example, were unsuccessful.

Other logistical problems remain unsolved. Besides the ammunition supply, the main focus is on spare parts for repairs – and how to move the tanks in Ukraine in the first place. Because: The tanks weighing more than 60 tons are extremely heavy – possibly too heavy for the Ukrainian bridges, as t-online has learned several times from security circles.

Ukrainian soldiers are running out

In addition to equipment, the Ukrainian army also has to worry about personnel supplies. The country is now in its sixth wave of mobilization and even men aged 60 and over are being called up. This shows that Ukraine will also face a shortage of soldiers, which, given the extremely long front line, could soon create completely new challenges.

Russian troop deployment in Belarus has already ensured that Ukraine also has to leave troops in the north to secure the flank and Kiev in case of emergency. With Western allies not sending ground troops to Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the defenders to win a long war of attrition.

The Ukrainian leadership can solve this complex problem in two ways: either it recaptures its occupied territory in the shortest possible time, or it retreats to a smaller piece of land that is easier to defend.

The latter is of course unthinkable for Kiev, because after the Russian massacres in Bucha and Irpin, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not want to expose part of his population to this fate.

That is why Bachmut must not fall. “We will fight as long as we can,” Zelenskyj said at the end of an EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev on Friday. Bachmut is a “fortress”. Zelenskyi again demanded more weapons from the West to repel Russia’s attacks. “The more long-range missiles we have, the better our artillery is equipped, the sooner Russian aggression will end and the better the protection of European security and freedom will be.”

Double strategy of the Russian army

On the other hand, it is unclear what the current situation is on the Russian side. In any case, Putin hardly seems to have any problem with sacrificing his own mobilized troops, as evidenced by the current fighting in eastern Ukraine. Kiev estimates that more than 420,000 Russian soldiers are currently fighting in Ukraine.

This is in line with estimates by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which in a report assumes that the Russian army has not yet deployed 150,000 of the mobilized troops. Other experts also think that mobilization in Russia has not stopped and that men are still secretly being drafted.

While there are clear signs that Russia has supply problems with modern technology, semiconductors and guided missiles, Putin’s forces should still have enough conventional munitions in their depots.

Russia currently appears to be following a two-pronged strategy: on the one hand, a new offensive could begin to capture the rest of the Ukrainian territories that had been illegally annexed. On the other hand, Russian troops have set up defensive lines to prevent Ukraine from making rapid territorial gains, as they did in late summer.

But is the Russian army ready for a new offensive, or has it already begun? This question is difficult to answer. On the one hand, Putin will probably want to go on the offensive again before Western armored cars and main battle tanks appear on the battlefield. On the other hand, he sees himself as having an advantage in the medium term because he thinks he has more soldiers and equipment at his disposal.

Little success for Russia: is Putin bluffing?

The fact that Russian warships are taking up positions in the Black Sea, according to Ukrainian information, argues for a planned Russian offensive. In addition, Russian authorities in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk Oblast have blocked mobile internet services, likely to obscure their own troop movements, experts say. Because again and again Ukrainian partisans report Russian positions and convoys.

Defensively, the Kremlin has learned from past mistakes. In the territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea, the Russian army cracks down on Ukrainian spies. In addition, the Russian military is now moving its ammunition depots further from the front lines to evade Ukrainian attacks with the US Himar system. That’s why Kiev is now asking for longer-range missiles.

In the end, however, no one can seriously say how well the Russian troops are currently positioned in Ukraine. The threat of a major attack can be another bluff. The answer to the question of whether the Western tanks arrive too late or just in time is therefore open.

One thing is for sure, military experts agree: the Ukrainian military actually needs its own strike wave to avoid prolonged rigid trench warfare. Russia, on the other hand, uses the time to create more and more lines of defense. So, despite Western arms shipments, time is ticking against Ukraine – and for Vladimir Putin.

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