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Fears of a new major Russian offensive are growing in Ukraine. The reason for this is reports of heavy attacks on the city of Wuhledar in the southeast of the country, in which Russian elite units are said to be involved. From the small town in the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian army controls a strategically important railway line to the Crimean peninsula for Russia.

“The enemy is throwing a significant number of troops, weapons and military equipment into battle and trying to break through our defenses,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Maler said of the situation at Wuhledar on Wednesday.

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The intensity of the fighting is increasing, according to Maler. “The attack on Wuhledar has begun,” reports Ukrainian war reporter Yuriy Butusov. “This battle will determine the entire course of the war in southern Ukraine in 2023.” The small town is of strategic importance mainly because of its location.

That’s why Wuhledar is so important

Wuhledar is located on a hill directly at the front in southeastern Ukraine. From there, Ukrainian artillery controls a railway line that runs through Russian-occupied territory – limiting supplies to Putin’s troops on the Crimean peninsula. The route is only about 20 kilometers away from Wuhledar.

After the attack on the Kerch bridge between Crimea and the Russian mainland in October, Russia must supply its troops in Crimea mainly via the land bridge in southern Ukraine, which it captured during the advance in the spring.

Without the railway between the regional capital of Donetsk and Crimea, the Russian military relies on road transport to get weapons, ammunition and fuel to the front lines, which is much less efficient than rail. For Russia, the capture of Wuhledar would be a great success, both for the defense of conquered territories and for new offensives. However, the question is whether Putin’s troops will be able to break through this time.

High Russian losses for Wuhledar

As early as October and November, units of the Russian army tried to take the lower neighboring towns of Wuhledar, Mykilske and Pavliwka. The attack probably failed with great losses – according to Ukrainian information, Russia lost 2,000 soldiers in the fighting. The high losses also caused resentment in Russia, especially as they affected two elite naval units. The renewed attacks on Wuhledar are apparently led by the 40th and 155th Marine Brigades.

War reporter Yuriy Butusow also sees the attackers at a disadvantage this time. “Wuhledar is a useful line of defense, it is on the heights, the enemy is approaching from the lowlands, there are possibilities to inflict another defeat on him,” the Ukrainian writes. “For us, the successful defense of Wuhledar means that we inflict maximum losses on Russia’s elite brigades.”

The British secret service also sees no “substantial progress” on the Russian side and speaks of possible reconnaissance attacks. The Russian army is therefore investigating the possibility of new advances in eastern Ukraine. It is also conceivable that the Kremlin wants to sow confusion with reports of alleged attacks, according to London.

In recent months, fighting in Ukraine has centered on the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in the east of the country. Russia mainly deployed fighters from the Wagner mercenary group. In mid-January, the Ukrainians had to withdraw from Soledar and Bachmut is still being fought hard.

US military experts have recently seen indications that Russia could strike next in the Luhansk region. Since September, the Kremlin has mobilized some 300,000 soldiers, many of whom are probably not yet in Ukraine but in Russian training camps. The Russian army must try to launch new offensives by spring at the latest.