Why China can’t conquer the small island of Taiwan

An invasion of Taiwan would probably not end in victory for China – and would result in significant losses for all warring parties.

This is according to a report published Monday by the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington. According to the report, which is based on 24 war simulations conducted, Taiwan “would remain democratic and independent in most scenarios if China were to attack”. However, the price to pay would be enormous for all states involved.

China considers the democratic island republic to be part of the People’s Republic, while Taiwan, on the other hand, has long considered itself an independent state. Recently, tensions in the region have increased.

3,200 dead US soldiers in three weeks

The report said, “The United States and Japan are losing dozens of ships, hundreds of planes, and thousands of soldiers. Such losses would damage the U.S. position in the world for years to come.”

The Chinese would therefore sink two American aircraft carriers in most simulations performed. In addition, the United States would have to face between ten and twenty warships as a loss. According to the scenarios, 3,200 American soldiers could be killed in just three weeks.

It also said that while Taiwan’s forces would not be completely defeated, they would be severely weakened. They should be defending an island where basic services have collapsed.

Conscription was extended

For China, however, an invasion would lead to much greater losses. Not only would the attack fail. According to the simulation, about 10,000 Chinese soldiers could die and tens of thousands could end up in captivity, according to the CSIS report. In addition, the People’s Liberation Army was estimated to lose 155 aircraft and 138 warships. The country’s navy is said to be “in ruins”.

Taiwan has extended mandatory military service from four months to a year due to the growing threat from China. “We have decided to introduce another year of military service from 2024,” Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, 66, said at a meeting of the national security cabinet at the end of December. The reason she gave was that China’s “harassment and threats against Taiwan” are becoming increasingly apparent.

Taiwan is under increasing pressure from Beijing, which considers the island separated since 1949 as a separate area and wants to reunite it with mainland China – by military force if necessary. The visit of high-ranking American politician Nancy Pelosi (82) to Taiwan in August heightened tensions between the US and China. (SDA/AFP/jmh)