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“I need ammunition, not an elevator.” Ukrainian President Zelensky said this on February 25 after Western countries offered to take him and his family. After more than nine months of war, this statement is still true: a conventional conflict is being fought in Ukraine on a scale that has not existed in Europe since 1945.

And unlike the many non-conventional conflicts involving Western countries, for example in Afghanistan or Syria, Ukraine needs huge amounts of ammunition. According to estimates by the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States has now supplied Ukraine with more than 1.5 million 155 millimeter NATO artillery shells.

However, after the end of the Cold War and the focus on the «war on terror», the production of heavy artillery shells no longer had the highest priority.

Why artillery is so important

Although Moscow claims to have the second most powerful air force in the world, Russian fighter pilots fly relatively few missions. This is probably not only due to the poor condition of many aircraft and the lack of spare parts, but also to the strong air defense of the Ukrainians.

Their Soviet-era guided missiles have been continuously supplemented in recent months with modern Western systems, but also, for example, with the anti-aircraft tank Gepard, which has long since been decommissioned by the Bundeswehr. In particular, the systems manufactured by Germany and Norway are regarded by the Ukrainians as true miracle weapons.

As a result, Russia can rarely use its air force to directly support its ground forces. That is why the Kremlin uses expensive cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, supplemented by relatively cheap disposable Iranian drones. In the front areas, on the other hand, the artillery – cannons, howitzers and several rocket launchers – set the tone. Trench warfare in Donbass is mainly artillery warfare.

However, unlike the two world wars of the last century, aerial reconnaissance using drones has revolutionized the use of artillery. The Ukrainians in particular, but also the mercenaries of the Russian group Wagner, make massive use of electrically powered civilian quadcopters. With this they observe enemy positions and troop movements and correct the fire of their guns.

The combination of these small drones with old artillery weapons has greatly improved the accuracy of fire. This also means that you can inflict more casualties on the enemy with less ammunition.

Limited production capacity

There are very different estimates of how many artillery shells are fired daily in Ukraine on both sides. A value between 10,000 and 20,000 could be realistic, even though some Western experts consider Russian ammunition consumption to be significantly higher. By comparison, according to a New York Times report, the US can only produce 15,000 shells per month.

The massive consumption of ammunition poses major logistical problems to both sides. Estonian military intelligence chief Colonel Margo Grosberg said at a recent media conference that Russia had already used up two-thirds of its total ammunition supply in Ukraine.

Therefore, the question arises, where should all the grenades come from? The Ukrainians, who had a large arms industry before the war, can hardly produce enough supplies due to Russian attacks with cruise missiles and drones.

At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian artillery used almost exclusively former Warsaw Pact calibers, namely 122, 152 and 203 millimeters for cannon artillery and several rocket launchers. Already in the spring it became clear that the supply of the Soviet-era systems was no longer guaranteed.

So Western secret services, diplomats and arms dealers all over the world went looking for artillery shells and missiles for old Soviet systems. Even ammunition depots in sub-Saharan Africa were tapped.

According to unconfirmed reports, the British purchased 122mm shells for Ukrainian guns from a Pakistani ammunition factory. For example, a Ukrainian video shows how a Pakistani grenade is unpacked. How exactly the piece ended up in Ukraine remains unclear. But there are suspicions that Pakistani munitions entered the war zone by plane via Cyprus and Romania.

Russia is also reportedly looking for munitions abroad. The delivery of Disposable drones with nuclear warheads from Iran. The US also accuses North Korea of ​​selling a significant number of artillery shells to Russia.

investments in the arms industry

To defuse the situation, the Americans and other Western countries have since the spring to supply the Ukrainians with western guns in 155 and 105 millimeter calibers. But here too bottlenecks have arisen in the ammunition supply. For example, the German arms group Rheinmetall wants to buy the Spanish ammunition manufacturer Expal Systems for the equivalent of almost 1.2 billion Swiss francs.

This provides a wide range of artillery shells in NATO calibers. According to the German Handelsblatt, Expal Systems should also be able to produce ammunition for the Oerlikon guns of the Gepard anti-aircraft tank. Switzerland has banned Germany from supplying the Oerlikon ammunition for the Cheetah it supplied years ago to Ukraine.

These 35 mm grenades would be the cheapest way to take down Russian drones and cruise missiles. This would better protect Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure against Russian attacks.