After a suspected Ukrainian drone attack in the bay of the port city of Sevastopol, in which Great Britain and Canada were involved, according to Russian sources, the first grain ships in the Black Sea have come to a standstill. Russia no longer wants to participate in the grain deal, which was supposed to prevent hunger in the poorest countries.

The UN fears an even worse food crisis if the grain doesn’t reach much of the world and is calling for the deal to be respected. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reacted furiously to Russia’s decision, saying that a major famine is imminent. According to Ukraine, 176 ships with 2 million tons of grain are on their way, which are now being stopped by Russia.

The agreement has already exported 9 million tons of Ukrainian grain. The European Union has also asked Russia to reverse its decision to suspend cooperation. NATO accuses Russia of using food as a weapon.

Heavy economic hit

Food systems researcher Bart de Steenhuijsen Piters from Wageningen University believes that stopping cooperation under the Grains Agreement will not immediately lead to major problems. “The effect is relative because many other sources around the world have already been tapped. Corn and wheat now come from Canada and the USA, among others.”

A big problem for Ukraine is that little grain and maize are exported. Farmers who, before the war, could still count on contracts made for the future are left with supplies and cannot sell their new crop. “It means that there is a lot of uncertainty in the Ukrainian market, and that is a serious economic blow,” says De Steenhuijsen Piters.

Dutch farmer Kees Huizinga in Ukraine started harvesting his corn this week. He’s very concerned because how does he get those tons of corn to market?

But where the grain business was primarily intended to supply grain to countries in Africa and the Middle East, the practice turned out to be different, says De Steenhuijsen Piters. “About 8 million tons were transported via Turkey. Of this, 5 million tons was corn and about 2.5 million tons wheat. And this corn went to Spain, Italy and the Netherlands as animal feed. The wheat is mainly from Western Europe on the shelves. “

Ultimately, the broker Turkey in particular benefited from the deal, says the researcher. “They themselves stored a lot of grain in Turkey and were thus able to keep bread cheap in their own country in times of high inflation.”

The countries for which the grain was also destined – for example Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen – received five shiploads from the World Food Program with 125,000 tons. “And that’s just a fraction of what came out of Ukraine,” says De Steenhuijsen Piters.

disaster after disaster

Farmer Huizinga is now busy harvesting his corn, but the wheat for the next harvest has already been sown. “There are also farmers who haven’t done it yet, who are waiting until spring. When the grain deal is finally off the table, I don’t know what we’re going to do with our wheat next year.”

In fact, Huizinga already feared that “Russia would find an excuse to cancel the deal”. He says it shows Russia doesn’t care. “One catastrophe after another, caused by the Russians. We and the West must not give in, because then they just continue to manipulate. Just like with gas and now for the second time with grain.”