Only six months after the last election, the Northern Irish have to go to the polls again. For months, Northern Ireland politics has been paralyzed by a crisis, with one party, the pro-British DUP, reluctant to form a government until Boris Johnson’s Brexit deals (the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol) are settled.

Last May it was described as a “historic landslide”: For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, the Catholic Sinn Féin became the largest party. This was long unimaginable in Northern Ireland, which for decades was the scene of a bloody civil war in which around 35,000 people died fighting over religion and identity.

Northern Ireland is part of the UK and its parliament has traditionally been led by pro-British Protestant trade unionists. But this year the Catholic Sinn Féin, the party for reunification with the rest of Ireland, got the most votes.

power sharing structure

Under the rules of the Good Friday Agreement, the peace accord that ended the conflict in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin is the largest party to have the prime minister. But they didn’t get this chance because the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) balked and refused to form a government for half a year. As a result, virtually no one could govern: after the Good Friday Agreements, Parliament must be based on power-sharing: the two sectarian parties (pro-British Protestants and pro-Irish Catholics) should cooperate with each other.

The DUP is not cooperating because there is deep dissatisfaction within the party over arrangements made in the Brexit deal over the trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Although the DUP voted for Brexit in 2016, they now face unforeseen consequences: more border controls and, beyond that, their greatest fear – a united Ireland – is looming.

Separate status

Since Brexit, Northern Ireland has had its own status: it’s still part of the UK, but follows some of the EU’s trade rules. This separate status is intended to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic (which is a member of the EU), precisely because there has been much conflict over this land border. The solution was to put the border in the sea. But from the start, this “invisible” border caused problems. Dozens of British companies have stopped exporting to Northern Ireland because they don’t want to deal with the bureaucracy involved. Although the border rules have only been partially implemented and are still being negotiated between London and Brussels.

The new maritime trade border means pro-British trade unionists feel cut off from the rest of the UK and are pushed more towards the Republic of Ireland. They sense that their British identity is coming under increasing pressure. The position of the DUP is therefore: until this is resolved, we will not govern.

Difficult Conversations

With this, the DUP is trying to force the British government to improve the Brexit agreements with Brussels, the post-Brexit agreements made to protect the European internal market. But talks about it have been going on for years and are extremely difficult. The British government set a six-month deadline to put pressure on Northern Ireland parties to form a government. That failed, and so new elections are held.

But who is waiting for it? Not the Northern Irish parties, not the UK Government and certainly not the people of Northern Ireland because they will probably have to vote again around Christmas. While the issues important to Northern Ireland, such as rising bills, care and housing, are sparsely addressed by a paralyzed Parliament.

Is there a solution?

The gridlock in Northern Ireland is actually a legacy of Brexit, but it also shows that the Good Friday Agreements may need an overhaul. Because thanks to these agreements, the two sectarian groups in Northern Ireland must work together, while a neutral centrist party like the centre-Liberal Alliance – which won many votes in the last election – cannot help form a government. Unfortunately, there is a possibility that the breaching of the 1998 international peace treaty will bring a new set of complications.

Another solution would be a deal between London and Brussels that the DUP can accept. The new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is pragmatic and possibly more willing to compromise than his predecessors. However, there is no quick solution to the political deadlock, leaving Parliament inactive and the Northern Irish going back to the polls.