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Putin’s public offensive

He has a lot to say these days. And when Vladimir Putin speaks – this is now also known in the West – he is neither particularly short in interviews nor in speeches: the Russian president spoke with the American moderator Tucker Carlson in early February for just over two hours, almost as long as long his State of the Union address about two weeks ago. Putin followed on Tuesday with a 90-minute appearance on state television. There are also many public engagements: in recent weeks he has met students and appeared in the cockpit of a Russian nuclear bomber in the city of Kazan.

The reason for Putin’s public offensive is clear: The Russian president will face voters in his home country again until Sunday. Putin wants to be confirmed as president until 2030. To stay in power, he had the Russian constitution amended in 2020. According to the law, he could now rule until 2036. Putin would celebrate his 83rd birthday that year.

Strictly speaking, Putin’s power currently seems so entrenched that a vote would not be necessary at all. Yet the Russian president still seems to attach great importance to achieving the best possible result. Why is that?

Top politicians presenting themselves effectively before the elections is part of their job. From a Western perspective, you might still wonder why the Russian president is still going through this election campaign: According to Russia’s independent Levada Institute, 86 percent of Russians agreed with Putin’s policies. It is the highest value in eight years. In addition to the president, there are also three Kremlin puppets up for election. Unlike previous elections, this time there will be no independent OSCE election observers in Russia.

“A kind of pro-Putin Olympics”

Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, a political and conflict scholar at the University of Bonn, sees both domestic and foreign policy reasons why Putin is seeking a good outcome: In terms of domestic policy, each region is now obliged to get Putin the right number of votes: “They are a kind of pro-Putin Olympics. He wants to see which governors can guarantee him the highest turnout and approval ratings,” the spokesperson said. says Heinemann-Grüder to t-online.

If approval ratings in different parts of the country do not meet his expectations, Putin could replace those responsible. Conversely, a good result can also be accompanied by rewards. In the past, regions that were particularly Putin-friendly subsequently received higher subsidies, the political scientist explains.

At the same time, Putin can also use the elections to sense moods: according to Heinemann-Grüder, the current strength of the opposition can be estimated in the big cities and the European part of Russia, which has traditionally been more skeptical of Putin. But the days when the late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny won 27 percent of the vote in Moscow’s 2013 mayoral elections appear to be over. According to the Russia expert, the opposition no longer has the strength of previous years.

Mass protests are unrealistic

Mass protests like those after the 2011 parliamentary elections are currently quite unrealistic. “In 2011, there was even more access to free media, Navalny’s network and other diverse opposition groups. These structures have now all been destroyed. People are in prison, abroad or dead’ says Heinemann-Grüder.

Nevertheless, the remaining Navalny supporters have also called for protests in these elections: on Sunday, all Putin critics across the country must gather in front of their polling stations at the same time. You must then vote for one of Putin’s three approved competitors or submit an invalid ballot that you sign “Nawalny.”

In addition to Navalny’s alleged murder, the Kremlin has taken other measures in recent weeks to keep the opposition as small as possible. The two independent presidential candidates, Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, were not approved by the Central Election Commission. Navalny’s close confidant Leonid Volkov was recently attacked with a hammer by an unknown person while in exile in Lithuania. The Lithuanian secret service suspects that the attack was planned and executed from Russia.

“It is a policy of deterrence and fear that is being pursued.” Andreas Heinemann-Grüder summarizes the Kremlin’s strategy. They want to use all possible means to prevent the opposition from demonstrating on the streets during the election weekend. Around Navalny’s funeral, chants against Putin and the war were heard at the opposition figure’s grave.

However, war opponent Nadezhdin currently does not believe in larger protests, as he said in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung:

Before the election, Putin tried to minimize the importance of the war in Ukraine. In his most recent speeches, he has paid much more attention to domestic policy issues, such as strengthening Russia’s infrastructure or supporting families. He also emphasized that the Russian economy is developing well despite numerous sanctions: inflation is currently causing problems for many Russians. At the same time, Putin’s switch to a war economy has led to positive key figures in the short term. However, several economic experts and Russian central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina had warned in recent months that the Russian economy could overheat.

Signal to Ukraine

The actual events at the front do not play a major role in Putin’s election campaign. For the first time since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin can get a sense of the mood among his people. High approval rates would be important in poorer and more rural areas, as this is where most men are still sent to the Ukrainian front, says Russia expert Heinemann-Grüder.

People in the occupied Ukrainian territories should also vote for Putin. In recent months there have been reports that Russian separatists are going from house to house to gather votes for Putin. Anyone who refuses to do so risks being arrested.

At the same time, Andreas Heinemann-Grüder assumes that Putin also wants to send a signal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj with the elections. Because he should actually stand for election again this month. However, due to the current Ukrainian martial law, the presidential elections have been suspended, as have the parliamentary elections, which were originally scheduled for last October. “He wants to say to Ukraine: you talk about democracy, but we have elections,” Heinemann-Grüder said.

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