“Russia will do everything it can to hold Kherson”

The Ukrainian army has recaptured thousands of square kilometers of land in recent weeks. Ukrainian troops have been approaching the city of Kherson in the south of the country since September.

In recent days, reports have piled up that Vladimir Putin’s (70) Russian troops are increasingly withdrawing from the city. On the other hand, there are also conflicting reports that Russia is even strengthening its units.

It could even be a deliberate strategic decision, says Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s secret service. In an interview with Ukraine’s Pravda, Budanov said that everything currently points to Russia preparing for trench warfare.

Putin wants to keep prestige city

Even military expert Marcel Berni (34), strategy expert at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich, does not assume that Russia will cede the city of Kherson to the Ukrainians without a fight. “The city is too important to just drop the prestige of the Russian leadership,” Berni told Blick. “I therefore assume that Putin will probably let it come to a fight.”

The Russian military leadership is currently in a dilemma, Berni continued. From a military point of view, it makes little sense to defend the city by all means. Many supply routes are interrupted, the troops in the city can only be supplied to a limited extent. “But one thing is clear: from a political point of view, Russia must do everything it can to preserve the city. It has to do with prestige. Kherson is one of the first fallen cities, a showpiece of the Russian offensive.”

That is precisely why it is of great importance from a Ukrainian point of view to regain control of the city. Berni even speaks of the “most important battle of recent months” that could take place at Kherson. “The Ukrainians could liberate the ‘Jewel of the South’ and they would have almost all areas west of the Dnieper back under their control. That would be hugely important from a strategic and psychological point of view.”

Probably not a dam explosion

Currently, Russian forces in Kherson are almost completely cut off from supplies. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian army has made bridges over the Dnieper impassable. Russia will most likely be dependent on a temporary inland waterway bridge and military pontoon ferries.

Precarious conditions are mounting fears that Russia could blow up the Kakhovka Dam near Kherson. The reservoir has a capacity of 18.2 billion cubic meters of water. By comparison, Switzerland’s largest dam, the Grande Dixence in the canton of Valais, has a capacity of 400 million cubic metres.

An explosion at the Kachowka dam would result in a massive tidal wave, flooding 80 villages. However, military expert Berni does not believe it will come to that. “Such flooding would be a war crime on a large scale. In addition, the Russians would also flood the areas they controlled. From a Russian point of view, demolition would be counterproductive.”