Putin’s scare-mongering fails: why Europe has too much, not too little gas In France, 27 nuclear power plants out of 56 are shut down due to strikes – what that means for Switzerland

For weeks, Europeans have been exhausted in a wild dispute over high energy prices. On the one hand, there are southern countries such as Spain, Italy and France, which no longer want to see the pressure on the markets and want to artificially lower prices.

On the other side are Germany and allies from the north, who reject such market interventions. They fear that price caps and other tampering with the supply and demand mechanism could have uncontrollable consequences and in the worst case that no more gas would come to Europe at all.

Tensions are high. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently had to listen to angry words from his EU colleagues that his refusal would make him behave like an egotist.

Lowest gas price in four months – thanks to the weather

But now the dispute seems to have settled, at least temporarily: at the beginning of the week, the leading Amsterdam index, which determines the gas price, fell below the psychologically important limit of 100 euros for the first time. This is the lowest level in four months and about 70 percent less than the record value of 340 euros per megawatt hour in August. The price decrease for short-term gas purchases is even more obvious: the so-called spot price fell to 30 euros on Tuesday.

There are several reasons for the descent. The most obvious is the weather: around 20 degrees in early November, the heating period is postponed. Gas does not go into the furnace, but into the storage. These are now well filled above average. In Germany, the largest gas consumer in Europe, the filling level is currently above 97 percent, in France even 99 percent and in the EU above 93 percent. This depresses demand and therefore prices.

But the supply is not bad either, although Putin has been turning off the tap for months, at least for pipeline gas. Major liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers from the US and around the world are piling up for Portugal and Spain. According to media reports, at least 35 of the LNG carriers, some up to 300 meters long, were waiting to dock at one of the landing terminals at the end of last week.

But the regasification installations are running at full speed and the pipeline capacities for onward transport to Central Europe are also fully utilized. In addition, consumption by households and industry has fallen due to savings efforts and a slowdown in the economy. Instead of too little gas, Europe is currently struggling with an oversupply.

The situation remains volatile – prices could skyrocket again

However, this is only a snapshot. It is difficult to predict how the gas market will develop. Some analysts point out that some LNG carriers off the Iberian Peninsula have not yet sold their cargo. If they get an attractive offer from a buyer outside of Europe, they can simply set course and drive away. When temperatures drop and the heating season begins, storage levels in Europe will drop relatively quickly and demand for a steady gas supply will pick up again.

Above all, however, the question arises of how to manage supply next year if no Russian pipeline gas is available from the start. Even if the wholesale price has just collapsed, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warns:

Against this background, EU energy ministers continued on Tuesday to look for appropriate measures to lower consumer prices in Luxembourg. How this is to be achieved remains open for the time being.

But one thing is clear: non-EU countries such as Switzerland or Great Britain may only benefit from EU subsidies such as a price cap if they also participate in their funding. The European Commission has pointed this out in a document for the attention of EU energy ministers.