The horror duo – two dictators together Long prison sentences for several men in the Brussels terror trial

The North Korean dictator must have been satisfied. Finally an official invitation abroad again. Vladimir Putin invited him to a meeting at the Vostochny space center in the Amur region. For this, Kim Jong Un traveled more than 2,000 kilometers from the capital Pyongyang in his safe and luxurious special train. Kim, who has been almost completely isolated diplomatically due to his internationally banned nuclear program, had not left North Korea since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic almost four years ago. His last trip abroad took him to the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok in 2019, where he also met Putin.

It is no coincidence that the two met in the Russian spaceport. The conversation between the two dictators will have mainly revolved around weapons issues. Even before Wednesday’s meeting with Putin, Kim expressed interest in space launch vehicles at the Cosmodrome. North Korea clearly needs this. In recent months, there have been repeated failures to launch the first military reconnaissance satellite into space. Kim will therefore expect technical assistance from Russia. On Wednesday he promised the Russian head of state “unconditional support”, referring to Putin’s war against Ukraine.

The composition of Kim’s traveling entourage also speaks to the military-technical character of the meeting. The North Korean observers from the specialized media NK News analyzed who boarded the train to Russia with him: senior military officials, including a person in charge of the munitions industry, a representative of space science, a navy and a commander of the airforce. The cast confirms that Kim and Putin are interested in weapons technology and arms transactions.

North Korea has many conventional weapons

President Putin needs supplies for his war of aggression against Ukraine. In particular, the army needs ammunition for rocket launchers and artillery, 122 and 152 mm grenades and anti-tank missiles. In fact, he is absolutely right about North Korea. Although the ruling family has been in the international spotlight since 1996 for its UN- and US-approved development of nuclear warheads and delivery systems, the country also produces other weapons.

What is less known is that North Korea has a military that is extremely well equipped with conventional weapons. As a threat to democratic South Korea and its protective power, the US. The border area between north and south is full of conventional weapon systems on both sides. North Korea could certainly provide Russia with some amount of ammunition from its extensive inventory. But Vladimir Putin has something to offer Kim Jong Un

Since the 1953 Korean War, the Kim family, which has ruled North Korea for three generations, has had a certain paranoia about the overthrow of the regime by American troops stationed in South Korea. That is why the regime is developing nuclear missiles and why there is a heavily armed border. Ultimately, Russian analyst Boris Bondarev suspects that not many grenades will be delivered. North Korea is dependent on reserves and would hardly give up significant parts of its arsenal. The arms industry would then have to produce new ones itself. Bondarev also points out that due to North Korea’s isolation due to sanctions, the goods would have to be transported via the Trans-Siberian Railway, which would be slow and cumbersome.

The quality of North Korean artillery shells is also somewhat uncertain: in 2010, North Korea fired 170 shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, killing four people. According to the renowned North Korean think tank 38 North, more than half of the shells around the island fell into the sea. 20 percent of the shells that fell on the island did not explode. According to the report, this high defect rate suggests that quality control during production in North Korea is poor or storage conditions are poor.

The fact that Russia still demands artillery shells from North Korea may indicate the lack thereof in Russia. Access to North Korea’s supplies, however, would prolong the war but likely not change the outcome, suspects Joseph Dempsey, who researches defense and military issues at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. A Russian arms or ammunition deal with North Korea will not have a significant impact on the war. Nico Lange also thinks the same waya security policy expert who works for the Munich Security Conference.

Whether North Korea will ever openly and directly supply Russia with weapons also depends on China. China (along with India) is the most important international supporter for Russia and Vladimir Putin. North Korea is impoverished because its leadership invests available resources primarily in the military and securing the dictatorship, and only secondarily in the livelihoods of its people. Moreover, international nuclear sanctions have cut the country off from the world. The regime has therefore long been dependent on Chinese supplies of oil, rice and fertilizer.

Although it supports Russia’s position, the Chinese leadership officially positions itself as neutral on the issue of the war in Ukraine. An arms exchange between North Korea and Russia would therefore not be so obvious for the time being. There were also rumors that there was at least indirect cooperation: according to American information, North Korea sent weapons to the Russian Wagner mercenaries in 2022.

Now on

However, if an official deal is reached, Kim will likely emerge as the winner of this partnership. He will demand food and oil from Russia for its starving population and he could promise enough grenades to bring sufficient Russian technical knowledge into the country through Putin’s promised satellite cooperation and thus advance North Korea’s missile technology. Such launchers carry not only satellites, but also nuclear warheads.

This is all still speculation. And so the only thing that is certain now is that the meeting at the space center will bring together two diplomatically more (Kim) or less (Putin) isolated heads of state who want to inform their population that they still have partners. The regimes have nothing in common ideologically. Ultimately, it is two ruthless dictators with nuclear weapons who come a little closer. A horror duo, if you will.

This article first appeared on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.