NATO summit: Scholz and Biden’s balancing alliance Sweden and NATO: why Erdogan relented

“We made very good decisions about Ukraine. Now it’s about supporting Ukraine in a very concrete way,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the end of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

That is what US President Joe Biden said a few hours later in a speech before his departure from Lithuania.

The two could have performed well together. After all, it would have been fitting that the German and American American position, unsurprisingly, prevailed in the debate over Ukraine’s entry into NATO, thus shaping this meeting of the military alliance. But the arithmetic of the top requires that after the various family photos and the bilateral shaking of hands, each government can also give its own view of the results achieved.

Despite their large number, they seem a bit fragmented at first. Last year, at the first major gathering after the Russian offensive war in Ukraine, there was a lot of Finland-Sweden fanfare in Madrid. Sweden’s membership was finally finalized in Vilnius, but that only partially justifies its classification as “historic”, as the whole world had been waiting for this decision to be implemented for a long time. In terms of publicity, it would have been more effective to welcome Sweden as the 32nd member, but in front of him was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who in turn always seeks the greatest possible publicity and therefore looped again shortly before the summit.

In the weeks leading up to Vilnius, the question increasingly heated in public debates became that of Ukraine’s possible NATO membership. Not only Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj had campaigned with clear and sometimes angry words for concrete commitments and found support from a few member states. It’s an emotional debate. For Ukraine, because, as Selenskyj reiterated Wednesday at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, his country is “fighting for survival and paying the ultimate price”.

#UkraineNATO33

For many Eastern NATO members because of the greater geographical proximity, the closely intertwined common history. This was felt in Vilnius, where 17 months after the start of the war, a Ukrainian flag hangs in every side street, pictures of children are drawn in the windows and thousands gather to fight under a banner “#UkraineNATO33” for Ukraine as the 33rd member state.

That, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg points out, but also Joe Biden on every occasion on graduation day, is of course not impossible. Before his latest outing with G7 alliance partners, Biden said Ukraine’s future lies in NATO. Only not immediately – which the Ukrainian president does not demand, of course, knowing that NATO would immediately become a party to the war – and not with promises that cannot be kept if there is any doubt. Such a strategic mistake was made by the alliance in Bucharest in 2008, when George W. Bush would have liked to quickly become president of the US, but couldn’t get through. As a compromise, a promise was made that was ultimately not kept.

At the end of Vilnius, there is another compromise, but it contains more concrete elements than before and is intended to assuage Zelenskyj’s disappointment that the roadmap to NATO is not really concrete.

promise of support

In a so-called Joint Declaration on Support, the US, Germany and the five other G7 countries pledge long-term military and financial aid to Ukraine, which – so the thinking goes – is intended to protect the country as long as it is not yet part of NATO. So more weapons, more equipment, reconstruction aid, training. But no guarantee of security, such as the obligation to assist in NATO. Scholz calls this a “safety partnership”. Under this umbrella agreement, the individual countries will bilaterally agree with Ukraine what will be delivered and made available. Biden’s Israel model could also fall under this, namely the US as a protective power for Ukraine after the end of the war.

In addition to the G7 statement as a NATO placeholder, the NATO-Ukraine Council was also established, which met for the first time on Wednesday. A forum where you regularly meet “at eye level”, as Stoltenberg said. Until the day they will meet as allies.

No hiding the deliberative attitude

The results of the summit are marked by the deliberative attitude of Germany and America, which both countries did not hide before the meeting. Above all, Biden, as Zelenskyj’s main ally, showed no room for change. “Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership.” That’s what the US president said before the summit. The chancellor, unlike the Biden he admires, is usually less clear, but said nothing else in Scholz’s rhetoric. For example, that there are clear criteria for membership. The two had spoken by telephone a week before the start of the summit. In Vilnius, the emphasis on transatlantic unity on this point was more than audible from German government circles.

Now on

In the background of the summit, the uncertainties that prevent a roadmap from becoming too concrete from her point of view also became apparent: the possible scenarios of an end to the war, which touches both territorial issues and political stability in Ukraine. Moreover, with its intended unconditional Yes to Sweden and Finland last year, NATO created examples of the fact that invitations, once made, should not be withdrawn.

Biden also understands that this frustrates Zelenskyj, who is leading his traumatized country through its second year of war. But that doesn’t stop him from his realism. It is the strategy of situational steps that both Biden and Scholz have followed quite consistently since the beginning of the war, to the impatience of some. Coupled with the rhetorical assurance to Ukraine, which is also a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin, that the Western alliance will stand steadfastly behind Ukraine.

These words of solidarity are much less fought over than the other important ones, behind which lie concrete actions and help. Because Biden also knows this, he meets Zelenskyj again in Lithuania for a bilateral talk. “We are not going anywhere,” Biden assured Zelenskyj: We are not going anywhere, but will be firmly on the side of Ukraine for as long as necessary. But the Biden-Scholz duo cannot set the pace at this summit.

This article was first published on Zeit Online. watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.