After the Wagner Rebellion: so it is with Russian affairs in Africa

When Icarus flew into the sky on his father Daedalus’ homemade wings, Daedalus told him not to fly too high. The sun can burn the wings. After the rise came the fall. In Greek mythology, the arrogant dies.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, apparently fell for this cheerfulness. He’s done too much. Will his structure, the network of soldiers, exploiters and prospectors, now burn?

The question is a bit more complicated than the myth. Because there is more than just his life behind Prigozhin’s net. The Wagner group was (and is) one of Russia’s most important instruments. Not only in the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin has been traveling to different countries on the African continent for years. And unofficially on behalf of Russia.

Gold, diamonds, coffee, sugar, propaganda, geopolitical power: the Wagners do a lot for Russia. but how is it going?

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The once close confidant of President Vladimir Putin turned traitor – captured a Russian city with his fighters and headed for Moscow.

The uprising lasted less than 24 hours – then there was the “deal”: Prigozhin went into exile in Belarus. What he got (politically) for not continuing to fight remains unclear. He and his mercenaries are assured impunity for the mutiny.

After Prigozhin made the deal, he sat in a car, waving to the cameras, as he was driven out of the Russian city of Rostov. Then he was gone for several days. One wondered: had he been “liquidated” as Putin would have originally ordered?

But on Monday there was a sign of life.

Meanwhile, Putin has offered the Wagner fighters direct contracts with the Defense Ministry. That was the original plan, by the way. By July 1, all Russian voluntary organizations should have subordinated themselves to the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin had announced that he would oppose this order.

Will Wagner fall now?

And what would be the consequences of that breakup, especially in terms of efforts on the African continent?

Putin knows about Prigozhin’s influence in Africa

Rama Yade is the Executive Director of the Africa Center of the Atlantic Council. She writes in an article: «This uprising will undoubtedly affect the African theatre, particularly Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya and Sudan.”

It is considered certain that Wagner is active there. But Yade also says, “While the interests of the Russian government and the Wagner group have coincided so far, these countries will now face two Russian actors with rival interests.”

However, this is only possible if the fighters in Africa remain in solidarity with their boss. Do not accept Putin’s offer. A complicated undertaking for the Russian ruler.

He knows how influential Wagner is in these countries.

In the CAR, President Faustin Touadéra is mercilessly dependent on the mercenaries. They offer him protection. bodyguard. In return, he lets Prigozhin’s company M-Invest manage gold and diamond mines.

In Mali, the provisional government under President Assimi Goïta uses the Wagners as military support against jihadist groups in the country. Again, access to gold is likely to be the exchange offer.

The breakup of the Wagner Group could become a problem for Russia

There is no official evidence of Wagner’s presence in Burkina Faso, but it is rumored that Prigozhin sent fighters there. The country is rich in raw materials such as gold. It is strategically located in the center of the Sahel region – and has been in crisis mode for years.

In October, the army staged a second coup d’état in 2022. There is always a Russian influence, because the distance to the West – especially to France – and the proximity of Russia are becoming increasingly apparent.

Then there is Sudan. Here, too, Prigozhin claims that there is not a single Wagner mercenary. The country has been characterized by unrest and violent power struggles for years. The regular army and the so-called Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary unit of Vice President Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, have been fighting each other since mid-April.

Prigozhin offered to become a peace broker.

Illegal arms shipments from Russia, combat units, propaganda campaigns – Russia (and especially Wagner) has been unofficially involved in Sudanese affairs for years. Here too, Prigozhin’s company M-Invest is involved in gold miners’ machinations.

In Libya, Prigoshin supports the warlord and rebel general Khalifa Haftar. Also offers missiles.

If all that falls away, Moscow could have a problem. It is true that Russia does not directly finance the war in Ukraine with revenues from the African continent. But these help to offset Western sanctions. The propaganda channels set up by Prigozhin are also important for Putin and his geopolitical influence.

Moscow, on the other hand, may be tempted to cut off supplies on the continent to show strength. Because: The military governments rely on Wagner mercenaries, writes the expert Yade. A demonstration of power by Putin could force Mali and CAR to distance themselves from Prigozhin.

According to Ulf Laessing there is an “all safe” here. He leads the “Sahel Regional Program” in Mali for the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation. When asked by Watson, he says: “The failed Wagner uprising does not change Russia’s military commitment in Africa.” If Wagner does not survive as a company, he says, the proceeds will go directly to the Russian state. “But that doesn’t change the stationing of the mercenaries.”

According to Laessing, another Russian transport plane landed in the capital Bamako on Friday to bring in new personnel and equipment. “The plane comes regularly, but the last flight shows that from a Russian point of view, ‘business as usual’ applies.” Russia urgently needs money because of Western sanctions. The expert therefore assumes that Moscow will comply with the agreements in Mali, CAR, Sudan and Libya.

And he also says:

It should therefore be difficult for Russia to secure new contracts for Wagner fighters. Moscow has been courting Burkina Faso for some time now. Until now, people there have been skeptical, also because no successes have been achieved in neighboring Mali. According to Laessing, this skepticism is likely to increase with the Wagner Rebellion. “Russia likes to use disinformation to present itself as a stable and reliable partner. The images of roadblocks in front of Moscow and a rebel convoy are likely to damage Russia’s image.”

And that, according to the expert, is exactly what the West should use for itself. This is an opportunity for Western countries to offer themselves as partners in Africa.

The Wagner group, says Laessing, will likely persist in some form. And if Prigozhin does not survive the attempted coup politically, Russia will appoint someone else to look after Wagner’s business interests. “Moscow will not miss out on revenue.”