Turbulence in the plane – here the bumps are particularly severe

When the red light above the seat comes on and all passengers are asked to quickly return to their seats and fasten their seat belts, there is often turbulence. This means that the plane wobbles, jerks and sometimes sinks. It feels a bit like you’re on a roller coaster. More sensitive people turn green and check whether the spit bag is actually in the front pocket.

Turbulence is part of everyday flying and occurs when the aircraft crosses zones where up and down winds (i.e. vertical clouds) cause movement. This can be caused by jet streams, thunderstorms or mountain air currents. These strong upward and downward air currents are generally harmless to aircraft. However, passengers should definitely follow the crew’s instructions. This means that you quickly return to your seat and fasten your seat belt.

The so-called clear sky turbulences, which occur suddenly and usually very violently in clear visibility, are quite common. In early December last year, Emirates Airlines flight EK421 encountered such strong turbulence en route from Perth to Dubai that people not wearing seat belts crashed into the ceiling and luggage flew through the cabin. Ultimately, 14 passengers and crew were injured.

But you don’t have to fly that far to get involved in air movement. There are also routes in Europe known for their turbulence. The turbli.com portal is dedicated exclusively to this phenomenon and has identified the most turbulent routes in Europe and worldwide. For this purpose, data from more than 150,000 long- and short-haul flights were evaluated.

The good news: if you don’t like flying and are afraid of a flight to Crete or Mallorca, you can breathe a sigh of relief. While there may be unforeseen ups and downs on such routes, the fiercest turbulence lies elsewhere.

All routes via Switzerland, especially via Zurich, are extremely sensitive to large “air gaps”. The first three short routes likely to experience the most severe turbulence include the 214-kilometer flight route between Milan and Geneva, followed by Milan-Zurich (203 km) and Geneva-Zurich (230 km). With the exception of the 541 kilometer long Frankfurt-Turin route, there are no flight routes that start in the Federal Republic where the risk of air gaps is particularly high.

As for flight routes worldwide that experience dangerous turbulence, there are no classic European destinations other than those via Switzerland. The heaviest fluctuations can be experienced during the flight from Santiago de Chile to Santa Cruz in Bolivia. The following is the route from Almaty in Kazakhstan to Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan. The flight paths with the greatest potential for massive turbulence are all in China and Japan.

Scientists expect the number of ‘air holes’, especially huge ones, to increase in the future. The cause lies in global warming, which noticeably changes the course and times of the jet streams that determine the weather. Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading (GB) has studied the effects of climate change on air traffic. Based on existing data, the scientist expects the ‘air gap’ phenomenon to double or triple in the next 30 to 60 years.

The atmospheric expert noted that, for example, the number of severe turbulences has increased sharply on the Atlantic route to North America, one of the busiest flight routes in the world. In 1979 this was still 17.7 hours per year, but in 2020 this has increased to 27.4 hours: an increase of 55 percent. The number of mild and moderate ‘air gaps’ also increased, but not nearly as dramatically.

Statistically, nine out of ten flights a person currently takes are without severe turbulence. Williams told the science portal Spektrum.de that an eight-hour flight averages about ten to fifteen minutes of jerking. However, this time may be significantly extended in the future.