How Russia’s “Victory Day” Should Become Putin’s Nightmare

Shortly before the military parades on May 9, Moscow was gripped by an “unprecedented nervousness,” Guardian reporter Pyotr Sauer reported Sunday.

In fact, Vladimir Putin and his followers have every reason to be nervous: Ukrainian drone designers want to seriously disrupt the main propaganda appearance of the Russian despot on Tuesday.

A Ukrainian businessman has offered prize money worth CHF 500,000. Or should one rather speak of a “bounty”?

What does this have to do with last week’s drone flights?

When Putin takes the stage in Moscow’s Red Square on Tuesday to celebrate the historic victory over Nazi Germany, Ukrainian drone makers want to deliver a different message to Russians: the message of their homeland’s unbroken will to defend itself.

The news magazine “Der Spiegel” published an explosive interview with Ukrainian businessman Volodymyr Yatsenko last Saturday.

In it, the enterprising entrepreneur explains that last week’s alleged drone attacks were just a test flight.

Jazenko, who developed drones himself, launched a special competition in his home country at the beginning of April: whoever manages to reach Moscow’s Red Square with a drone on May 9 should receive a prize money worth about 500,000 francs.

The stated goal is to “encourage and spur Ukrainian technology manufacturers to build more drones with longer ranges” and improve their technical characteristics, as Yatsenko confirmed to “Spiegel”.

He knows very well who sent the drones, but he does not want to divulge this information “in view of the upcoming parade on Red Square, which has not yet been canceled,” says Yatsenko. And emphasized: the small plane would certainly not have carried any explosives.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that future drones will also fly to Moscow without explosives…

What are Ukrainians planning for May 9?

This is unknown.

If the statements of the Ukrainian businessman are to be believed, no attack on Putin or the parade participants is planned before May 9. Or is it?

It is probably a PR coup demonstrating the weakness of Russian airspace security to the whole world and ridiculing the military leadership.

It is also unclear whether the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelensky is aware of the participants’ plans. Because such a project is risky and could lead to massive retaliation.

We know from leaked US intelligence documents that the chief of military intelligence of Ukraine planned attacks on the Russian capital on February 24. However, this would have been prevented by the US government.

How could drones mislead Russian air defenses?

Yatsenko, a trained engineer and pilot who became wealthy as a co-founder of Ukrainian online bank Monobank, says he has been building drones since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Since the 2022 invasion, he has funded his own development team and has a reconnaissance and combat drone built, which he makes available to the Ukrainian army.

A Ukrainian propaganda video published on YouTube shows the launch of such a “Dowbusch T10” reconnaissance drone from a moving pickup truck.

In late December 2022, serial production of the new reconnaissance drones was said to have begun and a variant for kamikaze missions was also being considered.

The advanced equipment and software make the Dowbusch drone practically “invulnerable” – it could outsmart Russian air defenses, and electronic warfare can also do little damage to it.

As is known, Russia defends itself against the drones by interfering with the satellite navigation system and deploying weapons systems everywhere that can shoot down the drones. But that is not really effective, because Ukrainian specialists have developed an alternative to GPS navigation.

As for the exact functionality, Yatsenko is understandably not looking at the cards. He told Der Spiegel that the Russians can interfere with satellite communications, but not the signal from a video camera. The drone software processes the images from the camera and enables the aircraft to navigate in space.

And he confirmed to the “Mirror” journalist that the Kremlin could not fully protect itself from such drone approaches.

What is the weather forecast for Moscow (on May 9)?

According to the weather forecast, it will be cloudy and partly sunny in the Russian capital on Tuesday, with a mild 14 degrees Celsius. According to meteorologists, strong winds are not expected. And there will be no precipitation. At least not natural, such as rain, hail or snow.

One could speak of perfect flying weather.

Will Putin dare to appear in public?

A waiver would be a serious defeat. However, the question is how and where Putin will show himself.

“There is a nervousness that I have never seen before,” the Guardian quoted an official in the Moscow mayor’s office as saying. But the day of the (Soviet) victory had to happen, there was no other option.

Authorities have banned the use of drones and started jamming GPS signals. And police were “hurriedly handed binoculars” to spot incoming unmanned aerial vehicles.

Significantly, last Friday, Putin took the unusual step of discussing preparations for the May 9 Victory Day Parade during a meeting with his Security Council. This body consists of Russia’s highest state officials and heads of defense and security services.

How important is May 9 for Putin?

Very important. For propaganda purposes.

On May 9, Russia traditionally celebrates the end of the “Great Patriotic War”, the victory over Nazi Germany. In the 23 years of his tenure, this day of remembrance has gradually “evolved into the centerpiece of Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russian identity,” according to The Guardian.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a researcher at the Moscow-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it was by far the most important event of the year for Putin.

Putin derives all his legitimacy from the parade and describes himself as the direct successor to the army that defeated Nazi Germany. Given this importance to the Kremlin, the parade must take place.

What’s the catch?

The planned parades in several Russian cities could also show how the offensive war against Ukraine has damaged the Russian military. As is known, huge losses have been incurred since the invasion in February 2022.

The Guardian quotes Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at Rand Corporation:

It should be noted that the Rand Corporation is a think tank created after the end of World War II to advise the armed forces of the United States.

What has the Kremlin already canceled?

Those responsible in the Kremlin have already canceled one of the most famous events of May 9: the march of the immortal regiment – a procession of people with portraits of their World War II veterans.

According to political researcher Massicot, Russian authorities may fear that the procession may end up highlighting the true number of Russian victims in Ukraine. Namely when relatives carry with them the portraits of the fallen soldiers in the current war.

At least six Russian regions have canceled May 9 celebrations altogether, according to the Guardian.

Sources