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Way in advance: at least in 2035 it won’t be as futuristic as some (the car) imagine our future to be. Mobility expert Michael Pachmajer believes that autonomous driving, for example, will not become widespread yet. He has been working on this issue for many years at the Future Institute in Frankfurt am Main (D) and Vienna. “I don’t think the issue will become established for more than a decade,” he says. “Technically, this is not a problem for the individual vehicle, as field tests have long shown. But the challenge will be: How do we manage to technologically build a fully autonomous transportation system in tight cities like Zurich?”
Pachmajer also sees us humans as an obstacle. “Confidence in safety and the willingness to trust a fully autonomous transport environment still need to increase. This probably needs more time.”
Mobility hubs and better connections
According to the expert, there will still be changes. Pachmajer assumes that in the near future mobility will change as traffic in cities decreases, but there will be mobility hubs on the outskirts of the city that direct incoming commuter flows towards the city via public transport or later concept sharing. “These new transfer points are an important element for the mobility infrastructure of the future,” says Pachmajer firmly.
Outside of cities, cars remain important. “The electric car plays an important role in rural areas and in connecting rural areas to urban mobility centres,” says the expert. This also applies to the continued growth in logistics traffic due to increased goods flows. A large portion of truck drivers are also likely to change. Pachmajer sees hydrogen in the polar position here.
It’s a development with which Toyota Switzerland’s media manager Björn Müller agrees. “We assume diversified mobility with different driving concepts that will characterize our roads in the near future,” he says. Toyota is currently relying on a broad, worldwide strategy to achieve CO₂ neutrality. «This is adapted to the company’s claim to offer different drive technology options for all possible customer requirements, market conditions and local infrastructures in different parts of the world. “This includes combustion engines using hydrogen or e-fuel as fuel, as well as various electric drives.”
According to experts, electromobility will be the new standard for cars in Europe by 2035. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids will continue to be important, at least globally. Toyota believes that all technologies will remain relevant in the future and that many technologies are worth trusting.
Super batteries are coming
As for Switzerland, the Federal Energy Agency asks in its 2023 report “How will Switzerland charge in the future?” It assumes that around two million battery electric vehicles will be on Swiss roads within ten years. This is almost half of the passenger car fleet. “The automotive industry, at least in the passenger car sector, agrees that electricity will be the standard in drive systems,” says futurologist Pachmajer.
Therefore, there will be more and larger battery factories in the future, because research funds will constantly flow into this field from now on. The new batteries use less harmful raw materials than lithium, which can be fully recycled. New battery concepts (such as the production of bipolar nickel-metal hydride batteries (NiMH)) that Toyota wants to introduce as a pioneer in this field. These use fewer minerals and are more cost-effective, with twice the power density. “We are also working on the market launch of so-called solid-state batteries,” says Björn Müller. These super batteries will be used gradually starting from 2026. “They provide much longer ranges of over 1,000 kilometers at lower prices and have a positive impact on the establishment of electromobility in the medium term,” Müller is confident.
There are still internal combustion engines, but…
Other experts also believe that there will be no problems or cause for concern in terms of range or charging by 2035. According to the estimates of the Federal Energy Office, the development of charging infrastructure will occur primarily in the next 10 to 15 years. Mobility expert Pachmajer confirms: “I assume that the charging network will reach the density of the current petrol station network, as providers will gradually convert their petrol stations to electric charging – because in the future this will become less interesting for them due to the decline.” demand for diesel and gasoline and higher CO₂ prices.”
It will still be possible to buy internal combustion engines for cars until shortly before 2035, as the blanket ban will only come into force shortly. This envisages that the sale of new cars with conventional combustion engines will be banned from 2035. This decision essentially applies to non-EU Switzerland as well, since new cars registered there must also comply with EU type approvals and European emissions regulations. “But the price difference between electricity from solar and wind and gasoline or diesel will probably be so large in the future, to the detriment of oil, that the internal combustion engine will no longer be attractive in terms of price,” says Pachmajer.
At the same time, the e-events market will give electricity a big boost in the next few years. “This market will grow significantly in the coming years. » However, the same situation also applies to the new car market. Toyota especially wants to make a big push here (see box).
But the Japanese auto giant is going even further, “beyond”: Toyota plans to not only sell emission-free vehicles by 2035, but also produce them in a CO₂-neutral manner as soon as possible. Björn Müller: “By continuously reducing energy consumption and using innovative production techniques, global production facilities will be climate neutral by 2040.”
Solution: There are various developments that will create visible changes to our roads. And because they have an additional effect thanks to numerous new (noise) emission-free drive concepts: Traffic will likely be significantly quieter in 2035.
Source: Blick
I’m Ella Sammie, author specializing in the Technology sector. I have been writing for 24 Instatnt News since 2020, and am passionate about staying up to date with the latest developments in this ever-changing industry.
