Do new brooms sweep better?: Doubts about the effect of a coaching change

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Fabio Celestini is the new trainer at FC Basel.

Statistically, fall is the season with the most coaching layoffs. Naturally, in many places the first trends emerged in the early stages of the season and where these can no longer be aligned with the company’s own objectives, action is taken. Perhaps making matters worse here and there is that the increasingly bleak days are taking their toll on some club bosses. There seems to be an effective panacea for both – bad trends and autumn blues: the expulsion of the coach.

Not much information is coming out about the current state of mind of Basel’s President David Degen. But that is not necessary, because the downward trend at FCB has been clear for weeks. Timo Schultz’s divorce at the end of September should not have come as a surprise to anyone after the miserable start to the season. And after an October with zero points and not a single goal in four games, there was no alternative to firing Heiko Vogel.

Ajax is also picking up a new broom

It might be a bit premature to claim that the trend has been broken after Basel’s 1-0 win in the cup against third division Kriens yesterday. Because in the coming weeks the focus of the new coach Fabio Celestini can only be on the Super League and the relegation battle there. But a little tailwind after the first competition victory since mid-September can’t hurt.

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Another traditional club has been waiting for a sense of success since August. Ajax Amsterdam has not won ten times in a row on the national and international stage, is historically poor at last in the Eredivisie and has therefore: of course changed the coach. The newcomer, ex-Ajax professional John van ‘t Schip, can provide further proof in his debut against Volendam tonight that new brooms always sweep well in the coaching world.

The statistics are not clear on this point. There are studies that show that new coaches do not score more points on average in the long term than their predecessors, and they also claim to have at least a short-term effect. A recent study by sports scientists at the Technical University of Kaiserslautern shows that in most cases of coaching changes there is a spontaneous improvement in performance, which according to statistical studies can sometimes last for several weeks.

In Lyon the new broom swept just like the old one

One person who does not seem to care about such calculations is former Sion coach Fabio Grosso. The 46-year-old Italian took over French top club Olympique Lyon in mid-September. The former series champion (seven titles between 2002 and 2008) dismissed coach Laurent Blanc after a weak start to the season at the bottom of the table and is no better off with Grosso five games later.

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That in turn could interest Union Berlin. Because the “Irons” are desperately looking for reasons not to fire Urs Fischer, their long-time successful coach. Since the results of recent weeks do not make good arguments – the East Berlin cult club lost all their last eleven games – examples of completely ineffective coaching changes are a welcome confirmation.

And in general: to interrogate a coach who, in the five years he worked at Union, achieved the milestones of promotion in 2019, confident relegation in 2020, reaching the Conference League in 2021, qualifying for the group stage of the Europa League in 2022 and entry into the Olympus called Champions League in 2023. At FC Basel, in any case, they still think back with horror to that day in the summer of 2017 when they said goodbye to Fischer after two years with two championship titles and one cup victory .

But when everything is no longer useful, perhaps a look at England can help. The bottom team in the Premier League there, Sheffield United, are currently bottom of the league in Europe with one point from ten games. No other club does worse in an elite competition. And yet coach Paul Heckingbottom is still firmly in the saddle. But hey, anyone who combines “crap” (heck) and “down” (bottom) in their name can probably keep losing forever.

For everyone else: This fall will pass and the chance that you will be able to keep your job will increase again.

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Super League 23/24
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SP
T.D
PT
1
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
12
13
24
2
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
11
11
22
3
FC St. Gallen
FC St. Gallen
12
7
21
4
Napkin FC
Napkin FC
12
1
19
5
FC Lucerne
FC Lucerne
12
-2
18
6
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
11
2
16
7
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
12
-1
16
8th
Yverdon Sports FC
Yverdon Sports FC
12
-5
16
9
FC Lausanne Sport
FC Lausanne Sport
12
-2
12
10
Grasshopper Club Zurich
Grasshopper Club Zurich
12
-4
11
11
FC Stade Lausanne Ouchy
FC Stade Lausanne Ouchy
11
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10
12
FC Basel
FC Basel
11
-12
5

Source : Blick

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Emma

Emma

I'm Emma Jack, a news website author at 24 News Reporters. I have been in the industry for over five years and it has been an incredible journey so far. I specialize in sports reporting and am highly knowledgeable about the latest trends and developments in this field.

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