Test numbers are falling – the number of unreported cases is rising

It came as it should. It’s over with free testing. Anyone who wants to get tested for Corona since the beginning of the year has to dig deep into their own wallet. A rapid antigen test costs about 40 francs, a PCR test about 140 francs. Fewer and fewer people are able or willing to pay.

The Federal Public Service of Public Health (BAG) also assumed a “significant reduction” in the number of tests. The logical consequence: this also reduces the number of confirmed new infections. On Thursday, the BAG reported 4166 new cases from the past seven days. A week ago there were 12,632 confirmed new infections. The Federal Bureau speaks of a stable situation.

The number of unreported cases continues to rise

At first glance, this seems positive. However, there is one flaw: in mid-December, more than 10,000 corona tests were performed daily across the country. Since then, however, as expected, far fewer tests have been carried out – apart from the absolute lowest values ​​since the beginning of the year: on January 1, only 2113 PCR and antigen rapid tests were carried out across Switzerland.

The federal government is clear on what that means: The coronavirus is not really on the retreat. “With regard to the reported number of cases, we assume that the number of unreported cases will again increase significantly,” said BAG spokesman Simon Ming.

More difficult to follow the course of the pandemic

This could have consequences, the chief doctor of the canton Rudolf Hauri (62) recently warned. Because many people at particular risk have not yet recovered, the unstable infection process will have to be closely monitored this winter.

“The system change in test cost financing in the cold season, which is also abrupt for the population, is therefore not optimal,” says the Zug cantonal doctor. “An extension of the previous test funding until around the end of March 2023 could well have been justified.”

Wastewater management is becoming increasingly important

Although the case numbers are likely to be falsified en masse, the federal government continues to use them to monitor the corona situation. But their importance is now declining again, says BAG spokesperson Ming. They are just one of many elements. For example, wastewater management, which also reflects the course of contamination, is becoming increasingly important, “regardless of the testing behavior of the population”.

Although wastewater monitoring will also be phased out next year for cost reasons, the viral load will still be measured in 50 wastewater treatment plants. “National wastewater monitoring will continue to play a central role in the assessment of Sars-CoV-2 and other pathogens in the future,” says Ming.

In addition, the so-called Sentinella reporting system with information from general practitioners or the monitoring of virus variants by means of sequencing can be used to draw conclusions about the course of the pandemic. The same applies to the number of hospital admissions.