Grease the Greens, GLP increases

The omens for the election in a year can hardly be different: while the Greens cannot repeat their sensational result of 2019 and must expect losses, the GLP can hope for further growth. The election barometer commissioned by SRG shows that the eco-wave of the last election neutralized itself.

At the same time, there is a neck-and-neck race between the FDP and the SP: the SP can almost keep its vote share, while the FDP can hope for growth and thus catch up. SVP and center also remain stable. Despite the corona crisis, the Ukraine war or the looming energy bottleneck, there are hardly noticeable changes in voting intentions.

The representative research of the research institute Sotomo shows the intention of the Swiss electorate to vote. More than 21,000 voters have been polled. Small blemish: The error rate is 1.3 percentage points. Blick shows the main results:

SVP can increase slightly

The SVP is and remains the party with the most votes. If there were elections today, it would rise slightly by 0.5 percentage point to reach 26.1 percent. And that’s despite the fact that, according to the survey, 27 percent of voters think they’re right-wing politicians. Many voters switched from the SVP to the FDP, contributing to Freisinn’s comeback. Nevertheless, the People’s Party can increase its voter share.

SP loses easily

The prospects for the SP were not very rosy. Since the national elections in 2019, the party in the cantons has suffered one defeat after another. The Greens in particular have dug the water out of the SP. In the election barometer, however, the socialists got off lightly: they lost 0.5 percentage point and still managed to win 16.3 percent of the vote. The SP benefits, among other things, from the fact that the rapid rise of the Greens has stopped for the time being. It remains stronger than the FDP – just, but still.

FDP creates trend reversal

A true trend reversal is underway at the FDP. If the last survey predicted more losses for Freisinn a year ago, the outlook is now much brighter. The SRG election barometer predicts that the party will grow by one percentage point to a total of 16.1 percent of voters.

“Of course we are very pleased with this trend. This shows that we are on the right track,” said FDP chairman Thierry Burkart (47). The FDP manages to formulate clear topics – and to communicate clearly: “We are more tangible again and show an advantage.”

The stated goal of replacing the SP as the second strongest party has not yet been achieved. “But the research shows that it is possible,” Burkart emphasizes. “This increases the motivation to continue working on the chosen path.”

Keep the middle

The years of decline of the former CVP have ended. Merged with the BDP in the middle, it has been able to stabilize its share of the votes. According to the election barometer, it loses 0.5 percentage point, which falls under the statistical uncertainty, and stands at 13.3 percent. The party can rely on its base: 75 percent of its voters are satisfied with the orientation of Center chairman Gerhard Pfister (60).

Greens are the big losers

It was a political earthquake. On the green wave, Greens nearly doubled their share of the vote in 2019 from 7.1 to 13.2 percent. But now the rapid rise comes to an abrupt halt. They lose 1.5 percentage points and still end up at 11.7 percent. However, the Greens would still have the second best result in their history. Above all, the party loses disappointed voters who switch to the SP. According to Sotomo, the party could not meet the expectations.

GLP is the big winner

The real winner is the GLP. It would rise by 1.5 percentage points and would now have a voter share of 9.3 percent. GLP chairman Jürg Grossen (53) still leaves the champagne in the fridge: “These are just predictions, billing will be in October 2023.” Of course he is still satisfied: “We are the only party that emerged as the winner from all previous investigations.”

According to Grossen, more and more people are realizing that the party has the right answers to the most pressing challenges, especially in the areas of energy supply, climate protection and European politics. In contrast to the Greens, for example, the GLP succeeds in finding solutions to environmental problems together with and not against the economy.

The constant increase creates desire: “Should we do a little better and break the 10 percent threshold and be represented in the Council of States, then the question of the Federal Council arises for us.” (dba)