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From Madrid to Valencia to the Balearic Islands – one stronghold after another has fled to the right camp in regional elections.

The socialist government president, Pedro Sánchez, reacted to this change in the political map by dissolving parliament and holding early parliamentary elections on June 23. Then it will become clear whether the “sanchismo” can stand.

Mrs Macher, how did the Social Democrats suffer this defeat?
The opposition has consistently supported the motto “Against the Sanchismo”. Under this label she summarizes everything that she believes stands for bad governance and a ‘false Spain’.

What is a “false Spain” in the eyes of the opposition?
Consider, for example, the quarrels within the ruling coalition. In addition, the left-wing coalition has been accused by the opposition of supporting separatist and regional parties from Catalonia and the Basque Country. In this heated mood, the PSOE had no chance to score with their government’s successes, neither with the increase in the minimum wage nor with the recently adopted rent ceiling.

Did the so-called right-wing tsunami mark them, or was it unexpected?
He came not entirely unexpectedly. A strengthening of the conservative Partido Popular was expected. Surprising was the vehemence and strong growth of the right-wing populist and eurosceptic Vox party. This clear vote is a slap in the face to the Spanish left coalition, which had to have consequences. But the radical nature of the move – the early elections – surprised Spain.

Has there ever been a similar situation in Spain?
Since the death of dictator Franco in 1975, there have been eight early parliamentary elections, most recently in 2019, when Pedro Sánchez overthrew conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose party was involved in a major corruption scandal, in a vote. of no confidence. However, to obtain a parliamentary majority, two rounds of voting were necessary due to the highly fragmented parliament.

Sánchez does not have much time now to mobilize the population. Isn’t his decision political suicide?
In any case, he takes a very big risk and puts everything on one card. His calculus: By shortening the time until the election, the right has less time to prolong their victory. In addition, the election campaign coincides with the period in which the conservative Partido Popular has to forge coalitions with the far-right Vox at the local and regional level. This is a bogeyman for many left-wing voters. Sánchez hopes to mobilize this electorate for himself. With the early election date, Sánchez is speaking a strong word, saying, “Step together or we don’t stand a chance.”

Is it a good idea to hold parliamentary elections in the middle of the hot summer months?
That could even become a problem for voter turnout. July is the warmest month of the year in the Mediterranean regions. Many are already on vacation in the second half of July and have to request votes by mail, the first of which already did so yesterday. The date is not popular – Sánchez’s electorate in particular could also demotivate it.

Unemployment in Spain has fallen sharply, the economy is growing faster than in other EU countries and inflation is falling. Yet Sánchez is not particularly popular. Why?
He is accused of an authoritarian leadership style. Moreover, the crisis in Catalonia five years ago polarized Spain. In this climate, the opposition was able to forge the enemy image of “sanchismo”. Topics from people’s daily lives, such as rising rents in large cities or the climate crisis, hardly played a role in the election campaign. Not all of the coalition fails in public perception, however. Labor Secretary Yolanda Díaz has been at the top of the list of most popular politicians for months.

Has the pandemic contributed to this negative development?
In each case. The left-wing coalition has been officially in office since early 2020. A few weeks later, the corona pandemic broke out, the first wave of which hit Spain hard. The government in Spain enforced one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe – with a seven-week ‘house arrest’ in which Spaniards were only allowed to leave their homes to shop and work. As soon as the pandemic was over, the war in Ukraine began. Then there is the climate crisis, the effects of which are now being felt everywhere in the form of drought and extreme weather. Even if the economic fallout from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine for Spain is less dramatic than feared thanks to generously extended short-time work, EU aid and mechanisms such as gas price caps, Sánchez and his left-wing coalition are not seen as successful crisis managers, but as symbols of the crisis.

Spain has developed into a pioneer of progressive societies. Can’t Sánchez stand the test of time with his women’s and equality policies?
Under the socialist government of Zapatero, who served as Prime Minister of Spain from 2004 to 2011, Spain has already set an example across Europe with its laws against gender-based violence. However, the strengthening of Vox since 2019 puts these achievements to the test once again. The women and equality policy of the Sánchez government is also having a harder time than that of its predecessor for another reason: it mainly goes back to minister Irene Montero.

Their tightening of the sexual criminal law has caused waves beyond the national borders.
Yes, her “Yes is Yes” law subsequently had to be fixed with opposition votes due to conceptual errors, earning her a reputation for being incompetent. At the same time, the transsexual law, which allows all people over the age of 16 to change their gender in the personal register simply by going to the office, has also angered socialist feminists: it went too far for them. A large part of the population, on the other hand, found the fierce debates about this law simply “unrealistic”.

And this motivates the population to switch sides?
The support is fueled by dissatisfaction and anger at a government perceived as too radical: for its support from separatist parties, for its forays into feminist issues. The desire for quieter, less crisis-ridden times may also have played a role – although that is more wishful thinking than reality. Finally, the 2008 financial crisis hit Spain hard.

Should there actually be a shift to the right, would this weaken the economy again?
That depends on what role the far-right Vox will play in a possible right-wing coalition. A solid majority of the conservative Partido Popular, on the other hand, could be seen as a stabilizing effect, especially among large, publicly traded companies. The early parliamentary elections had no significant impact on the Spanish stock index.

The fascist dictatorship under Franco is still present among the elderly population. Aren’t there statements from this age group against a shift to the right?
The far-right Vox is particularly popular with younger, male voters. The older population usually votes for one of the two major popular parties, the left-wing PSOE or the conservative Partido Popular (PP). The older voters of the PSOE have memories of the dictatorship, but have not (yet) said “never again”. This is also because the fascist past is not nearly as entrenched in the collective memory as a major catastrophe such as National Socialism in Germany, for example. Spain did not break with the dictatorship after Franco’s death.

Is this reflected in the fact that the crimes of the Civil War have not been brought to justice to this day?
Yes, the amnesty laws advocated by the opposition prevent this processing. With Franco’s reburial from the monumental “Valle de los Caídos” and the law on democratic remembrance, the left-wing coalition has taken important steps to come to terms with the past, but the protests against it show that the dictatorship in Spain is still a positive frame of reference for some .

What is your assessment, can the right wave in Spain still be stopped, which has already reached other countries such as Italy?
The far-right Vox already achieved strong results in the last parliamentary elections. Sunday’s results prove again: Spain is not immune to a right wave. Whether ministers from a far-right party will sit in the future cabinet mainly depends on the performance of the two major mainstream parties. Either the conservative Partido Popular succeeds in presenting itself as a moderate alternative to protesting and frustrated voters of the right-wing populist Vox – which will not be easy. Or the support for the PSOE, the regional parties and the left-wing alliances is so strong for fear of this “right wave” that they can once again provide a parliamentary majority. This will do little to change the polarization of the country.