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Amid the sad reports from war zones like Ukraine, Sudan and Yemen, there was some hopeful news this week: after decades of fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, the warring ex-Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan are looking to settle their dispute.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (47) in particular wants to speed up the peace process. At a press conference this week, he said: “86,600 square kilometers of Azerbaijan’s territory also includes Nagorno-Karabakh. If we understand each other correctly, Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity within the defined boundaries, and Baku recognizes Armenia’s territorial integrity over 29,800 square kilometers.”
For Pashinyan, the condition for recognition is that Azerbaijan must guarantee the rights of the nearly 100,000 Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Pashinyan met in Moscow on Thursday for peace talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (61). Aliyev said: “I think there is a possibility of a peace deal – especially considering that Armenia has officially recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.”
Russia also mediated
Peace brokers include Russia, the US and the EU. The two state representatives met in Moscow, mediated by Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70), who previously supported Armenia. Russia has an interest in peace because it wants to focus fully on the war in Ukraine and not strain ties with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s main ally.
Under international law, the Nagorno-Karabakh region belongs to Islam-influenced Azerbaijan. The conflict over the region flared up after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, in which Nagorno-Karabakh had the status of an autonomous region of the USSR. As early as 1992, a war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the area, killing about 30,000 people and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Another war flared up in 2020, which ended in a ceasefire six weeks later with the help of Russian mediation.
Under international law, the Nagorno-Karabakh region belongs to Islam-influenced Azerbaijan. The conflict over the region flared up after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, in which Nagorno-Karabakh had the status of an autonomous region of the USSR. As early as 1992, a war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the area, killing about 30,000 people and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Another war flared up in 2020, which ended in a ceasefire six weeks later with the help of Russian mediation.
At the beginning of May, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (61) received the two state representatives for four-day talks and in mid-May they were with EU Council President Charles Michel (47) in Brussels. Blinken said both sides had made “tangible progress towards a lasting peace deal”.
Never been so close to peace
The chance of a peace agreement has never been greater. Stefan Meister (48), director of the South Caucasus office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation until 2021 and now working for the German Association for Foreign Policy, says on Spiegel.de: “With Pashinyan, a peace treaty is possible for the first time.” After the “Velvet Revolution” in 2018, Pashinyan came to power in democratic elections and wants to move from Russia to Europe.
Yet Meester is sceptical. Pashinjan’s step is more “an insight into reality”. Armenia has lost the war in 2020 and is too weak militarily to change the situation. From Azerbaijan’s point of view, the Karabakh issue has been resolved since the war was won.
EU can exert pressure
For Armenia, in general, the future of the country is at stake. Meester: “It has long been about more than just Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan is now also questioning Armenia’s borders. There have been attacks on Armenian territory. This increases the insight to give up Karabakh, to reach a possible peaceful solution and at the same time to get the borders recognized.”
The German military expert Ralph D. Thiele (69) is also skeptical: “This peace plan has a black ribbon. He will not solve the conflict.” One of the problems: the Armenian people do not support Prime Minister Pashinyan’s concession. After all: “He avoids the armed conflict until further notice.”
According to Meister, there is a means of pressure for the EU to get Azerbaijan to give in. “Azerbaijan wants to sell its gas on the European market, which can be used in the negotiations.” The country also needs investment.
Such promises could be made during next Wednesday’s talks. Then the two warring parties meet for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64) and French President Emmanuel Macron (45).
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
