“No one believes in victory anymore” Medvedev wants to divide Ukraine with the EU – the nightly update without photos

He is under increasing pressure. Vladimir Putin has led Russia into a momentous war of aggression in Ukraine. What was probably planned by the Russian president as a short military operation to install a pro-Kremlin government in Kiev has turned into a long war. It is completely unclear whether the Russian military can win this at all.

The consequences of this miscalculation weigh heavily on Russia: more and more Russian soldiers and reservists are dying at the front in Ukraine, Putin’s army does not seem to have enough heavy weapons for a long campaign and the damage caused by the economic disconnection of the land of the West has so far been but insignificant.

But what does this mean for the Russian leadership? The journalist Roman Anin, who is critical of the Kremlin, is sure that a battle is already raging in Putin’s circle of power to succeed the Russian president. But even for experts, it is extremely difficult to see behind the walls of the Kremlin. So far, there are small signs that Putin’s chair is being sawn.

Putsch from Putin’s inner circle?

“Putin is over 70 years old. He is no longer a young man. It means that those around him understand that sooner rather than later he will die or resign,” Anin told the Georgian service of US radio station Radio Free Europe. “They are aware that they have to work on different scenarios for the time after his death.”

Roman Anin is a Russian investigative journalist who worked for Novaya Gazeta. In 2021, Russian authorities labeled him a “foreign agent” and he fled abroad.

Certainly: the average life expectancy of Russian men in 2022 was 64.7 years, Putin is 70 years old and there is always speculation about possible serious illnesses of the Russian president.

In the past, rumors about Putin’s state of health were rather an expression of hopelessness, as it seemed unlikely that there would be a change of political power in Russia. The opposition is still weak, opponents of Putin have fled abroad or, like Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, are in prison.

Many Russia experts therefore agree that a change of power in Russia can only be initiated by Putin’s inner circle.

“The war of the clans for Putin’s throne has begun”

But the war in Ukraine could have triggered this, or so Kremlin critic Anin assumes. “The war of the clans for Putin’s throne has begun. That does not mean that they will overthrow him,” he said. The journalist was referring to the Russian power elite, the inner circle around Putin. “They want to save their lives, their property and the lives of their loved ones. They understand that Russia has lost – because no one believes in victory anymore.”

Therefore, they would now try to save their power and wealth and avoid being charged as criminals after a possible transfer of power.

It is indeed clear that the turmoil within the Russian leadership is on the rise. For example, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and the commander-in-chief of Russian troops in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, publicly attack each other. Anin sees a power struggle behind this, in which key players in Putin’s circle compete with their supporters for the successor at the top. “We all hope that Ukraine will win on the battlefield. It would mean the beginning of chaos in Russia and the beginning of this ‘War of the Clans’.”

In the past, Putin has benefited from this struggle within his power structure because those in his circle of power have mainly depended on his goodwill. This has always consolidated Putin’s power. “He loves to act as a judge in the battles of the inner circle,” Anin said. “Today this is clearly not the case, because these public clashes definitely do not consolidate Putin’s power. It’s the other way around. You weaken him.”

Who could come after Putin?

So far, Putin seems unwilling or unable to stop the quarrels. Perhaps his strategy is to shift the focus of the continuing misadventures of the Ukraine war onto his subordinates and shirk responsibility himself. But for the Kremlin boss, the situation is undoubtedly dangerous.

“Things can change and evolve very quickly, and I fear we are just one step away from the beginning of real chaos in Russia,” says Anin. “Unless Putin decides to withdraw his troops, shut down Russia, impose a military dictatorship, arrest all his enemies and really turn the country into a North Korea.” He is sure: “Either Putin acts himself – that is, he starts repression against his former allies – or it is too late.” That was a “very difficult decision” for the Russian president.

But the journalist’s analysis is mainly based on circumstantial evidence. For example, he sees the withdrawal of the Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut as a sign that Prigozhin is preparing for a possible change of power. “If you read public statements by Prigozhin and many other opinion leaders – so-called patriots – they have already started to criticize Putin,” Anin said. “They’re already saying he’s betraying the country.”

However, so far Prigozhin has attracted attention mainly with his criticism of the army leadership and has so far refrained from direct attacks on Putin. Since the Wagner boss is also dependent on the Russian president, without Putin his mercenaries get no weapons and no ammunition.

One thing is certain: there are power struggles in the Kremlin, but from the outside it is hard to see how dangerous they can be for Putin.

In the case of opposition figures like Anin, the hope that something might change politically in Russia often resonates in the analyses. Yet, among Putin’s circle of leaders, there is no potential successor ready for a change of course in Russia. Anin has no illusions about that either. “I fear that someone worse than that could win this power struggle. Imagine Prigozhin winning and the country with the second largest nuclear arsenal in the hands of a notorious criminal,” he said. A “mad criminal” who even worse than Putin.”I hope the West has a plan on how to proceed.”