Now Ron DeSantis must hope for the Special Investigator Car crashes into the barrier at the British seat of government

Just a decade ago, Florida was a so-called “purple” state, meaning the Democrats won once, then the Republicans again. Barack Obama won twice in the Sunshine State, and Joe Biden had legitimate hopes of doing the same. Nothing came of it. Donald Trump won easily in Florida, and his protégé, Governor Ron DeSantis, even won a landslide victory in last year’s gubernatorial election by a margin of 19 percentage points. Florida finally seemed to have become a “red” state, a Republican stronghold.

Florida as a conservative role model

However, DeSantis and the Grand Old Party (GOP) have higher-flying plans. Florida must be transformed into a model conservative state, a blueprint for the entire United States. Before the governor officially announced his candidacy for the White House, he pushed a slew of bills through the Republican-dominated legislature: in the future, abortion may only be allowed in the first six weeks of pregnancy, amounting to a de facto ban . The Weapons Act also allows the carrying of concealed weapons. Teachers are no longer allowed to raise gender issues in schools. Leftist colleges are being transformed into conservative universities.

DeSantis stands out as a culture war warrior. “Florida is the state where Woke is doomed to die,” he boasts. He also doesn’t shy away from pretending to be a fighter for the little guy and messing around with big business i.e. Disney Corp. In short: DeSantis was not only Trump’s most learned student, he also seemed to be his ideal successor until recently.

So much for the planning. But as boxing champ Mike Tyson once so aptly said before an important fight, “Everyone has a plan – until they get punched in the mouth.” And DeSantis got it in the mouth on Wednesday. His official campaign launch with Twitter and Elon Musk was an unmitigated disaster. Even the TV channel Fox News, which is so well disposed towards him, laughed and was openly angry.

In fact, DeSantis and Elon Musk’s Twitter performance is painfully reminiscent of the days of Zoom meetings, when participants often wasted a lot of time in front of frozen screens. Worse than the technical issues, however, is the fact that the flaws of DeSantis’ plan were also ruthlessly exposed. For many political forecasters, the Florida governor is already “toast,” as the Americans put it, meaning: done.

Does a “Trump with a brain” make sense at all?

That may be a bit premature. A lot can happen before November 2024, and in politics the boxer wisdom – “they will never come back” – only applies to a limited extent. Joe Biden proved that recently in the last primaries. He was also written off after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire until he made a triumphant comeback in South Carolina.

However, if DeSantis is to calculate his chances at the White House, he must thoroughly review the books and his plan. He must ask himself: does it really make sense to give the “Trump with a brain”? First, most voters prefer the original, and second, it is precisely the fact that Trump has no brains that makes him so attractive to his supporters. They can identify with him, he entertains them and brings action to their boring daily lives.

The robotic DeSantis, on the other hand, may be more intelligent and harder working, but he lacks charisma and you can physically feel that he actually dislikes humans. At 44, he may be considerably younger than 76-year-old Trump, but somehow he seems older. His “I’m-an-exemplary-family-father” attitude, his religiosity – pretended or real – it’s all something retro, from the 1960s and even the 1950s. Moreover, as Charles Blow put it in the New York Times, “Trumpism without Trump is like trying to preach Christianity without Christ.”

With his Kulturkampf against Mickey Mouse, he also painted himself into a corner. Disney is anything but a wakeful company and CEO Bob Iger doesn’t really suffer from an inferiority complex. In the style of Clint Eastwood – “Make my day” – he openly challenges DeSantis. So far Iger had the upper hand in this duel. He outright canceled a multibillion-dollar project in Florida, and now DeSantis must explain to his constituents why he not only alienated the largest employer in his state, but also gave up 2,000 jobs.

After the midterm elections, which were so disappointing for Republicans, Trump slipped into shape. DeSantis was ahead of the ex-president in several polls. That has changed radically. In current polls, Trump is once again ahead by more than 30 percentage points. What can the governor of Florida do about it?

For example, he could finally attack Trump head-on. But not only does he lack the courage to do so, it would be political suicide. Anyone who stands in the way of the ex-president is immediately finished with his base and has no chance.

However, DeSantis won’t be throwing in the towel any time soon (final boxer metaphor, I promise). He has about $200 million in the bank for the primary and plans to unleash 2,000 pollsters on the country soon. At the same time, he apparently wants to change his plan: he now wants to overtake Trump on the right. This is not only dangerous, but also risky. The ex-president himself has swung so far to the right that there is hardly any room left.

DeSantis must have pinned his hopes on Jack Smith, the special representative appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland. It determines whether Trump committed criminal offenses in the run-up to January 6, 2021 and in connection with classified documents and should therefore be prosecuted.

The charges are currently pending. Trump’s lawyers have just submitted a letter to the Attorney General asking for an audience. This is taken as a clear sign that the special counsel is about to press charges against the ex-president. At the same time, there are rumors that Mark Meadows, Trump’s former chief of staff, has switched sides and now wants to testify against his former boss.

The legal situation for the ex-president has deteriorated so much in recent days that Ty Cobb, the former White House attorney, told CNN, “He’s going to go to jail.” William Barr, former Trump attorney general, shares this assessment.

Trump could now, in theory, seek re-election from prison. The question is whether the GOP would also participate. If that happened, Republicans could ditch Trump and switch to the brain clone. However, the probability of such a scenario is currently still very manageable.