The strategic advantage in aerial warfare has so far been with the aggressor Russia. With its arsenal of missiles, cruise missiles and drones, Moscow is currently trying to knock out Ukraine’s air defenses – for a very specific purpose.
Last fall, Russia responded to the Ukrainian army’s major territorial gains with a strategic missile offensive. The target was the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. When the intended long-term disruption to electricity and water supplies failed to materialise, Moscow shifted the focus from its long-term attacks to knocking out Ukraine’s air defenses.
In their defense against aerial attacks, Ukraine has repeatedly achieved spectacular successes. The fact remains, however, that the aggressor Russia is still blocking the strategic initiative, while Ukraine can only respond with isolated counter-attacks.
The following overview shows the extent to which this weight can shift in view of current developments in aerial warfare and the F-16 delivery release.
12 facts about the air war over Ukraine
- Ukrainian air defenses are successful over urban centers, where the combination of radar-guided anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft guns form a dense screen. Against the slow-flying and noisy Iranian-made Shahed drones, the German Gepard anti-aircraft tank has proven to be both an effective and efficient weapon at close range.
- Recently delivered modern missile systems such as the German Iris-T batteries, the US-made Patriot launchers and the US-Norwegian Nasams are not only successful against the Russian missiles, but also keep the enemy air force at bay. The main problem of the Ukrainians is that so far there are too few modern systems available to protect the vast Ukrainian airspace across the board and especially above their own front lines.
- According to confirmed data, Russia has lost two state-of-the-art Su-35 fighters, a Su-34 fighter-bomber and two Mi-8 helicopters in the past ten days. It is not yet clear with what type of missile these machines were shot down, as the shots were probably beyond the range of the aforementioned Ukrainian defense systems; most recently the second SU-35 over the Black Sea. This points to a newly acquired Ukrainian airborne long-range capability – drones equipped with anti-aircraft missiles would be conceivable. According to US sources, about 60 Ukrainian planes have been shot down since the beginning of the war compared to more than 70 Russian ones.
- Following last night’s Russian attacks on civilian targets in Dnipro, Ukraine claims all 20 incoming Shahed drones and 4 Russian Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were shot down. In a real dogfight over Kiev on 15/16. On May 12, Ukrainian Patriot batteries reportedly shot down six Kindschal hypersonic missiles.
- The fact that the Russians continue to attack Ukrainian cities with waves of missiles, cruise missiles and drones, despite these numbers, serves three immediate purposes: First, it keeps Ukraine’s anti-aircraft systems off the front lines. Second, Ukrainians must use up their precious Iris-T and Patriot stocks to protect civilians. Thirdly, the Russians are increasingly attacking the missile defense positions themselves as soon as they reveal themselves through their anti-aircraft fire. Russia has so far reported the destruction of four Patriot launchers, which the Ukrainian side denies.
- The strategy behind the Russian missile offensive is to suppress and deplete Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses in order to ultimately deploy the superior Russian air force in full force over the battle lines in Ukraine. The Russian Air Force, with hundreds of fighter jets not yet deployed, must become a weapon that will decide the war.
- The current intelligence report of the British Ministry of Defense is in line with this. According to this, Russia wants to create a new elite unit of the air force, which will attack the Ukrainian ground forces with Su-34 and Su-24 fighter-bombers and helicopters. Experienced pilots are currently being sought in Russia and recruited with the prospect of high wages. According to British military intelligence, the new unit is codenamed “Shtorm” (Russian for “storm”).
- Ukraine has long recognized that the increased use of warplanes to fight ground targets could be decisive for the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has focused his entire travel diplomacy in recent weeks on obtaining a suitable multi-role fighter jet, the F-16 fighter jet, capable of bringing the strategic initiative to Ukraine’s side. The rapid success of his “fighter jet alliance” may have surprised even Kiev.
- Although the F-16 first flew with a US unit in 1979 and is about to be retired by several air forces, the later built variants are still considered powerful and versatile. The Israeli Air Force used the F-16 with particular success, purchasing more than 360 examples: the US jet first proved its capability as a ground attack aircraft in 1981 during the long-range bombing of the Iraqi nuclear reactor Osirak. In dogfights, the Israeli F-16s, armed with guided missiles and cannons, have so far shot down 47 Soviet-designed aircraft, including numerous Syrian MiG-21s and MiG-23s.
- But the F-16s are not silver bullets, emphasizes US expert Brynn Tannehill. Their biggest weakness is their outdated radar equipment, which makes them vulnerable in aerial combat to the Russian R-37 missile, which has a range of 200 kilometers. The Ukrainian MiG-29 don’t stand a chance against them either. The F-16 can only operate successfully in combination with modern anti-aircraft missile systems and in electronic coupling with the Patriot radar.
- The detailed reactions in Moscow show the threat posed by the F-16 episode release. First, the Russian State Department described future F-16 deliveries to Ukraine as a “colossal risk,” which US President Joe Biden acknowledged with “Yes, for Russia” (“It’s for them”). Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded Monday by describing the F-16 fighter jets as “useless for the conduct of the war”. The plans of the West and the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 would not prevent Russia from “achieving the desired results in the special operation”.
- It is still unclear how long it will take for the Ukrainian pilots to retrain on the American plane. An analysis by the US Congressional Research Group is often quoted, which estimates the duration of training at only four months, which is much shorter than current expert opinions. British media recently reported that Ukrainian pilots would have performed “excellent” during a test flight on F-16 flight simulators. In an interview, Greg Bagwell, the former commander-in-chief of the British Royal Air Force, described the possibility of training Ukrainians without flying experience to become F-16 fighter pilots within two years.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
