Divided like never before – the elections in Turkey in 7 points

It’s all about this

After 20 years in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to face a runoff election for the first time. With about 95 percent of the ballot boxes counted in Germany and about 37 percent abroad, Erdogan has 49.35 percent of the vote. The information comes from the highest Turkish electoral authority, Monday morning at four o’clock Swiss time.

Opposition leader and challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu comes to 44.99 percent. Both candidates therefore do not reach the absolute majority of 50 percent and have to go to a second round on May 28.

The ongoing developments in the elections in Türkiye in the live ticker:

Such were the elections

After years of undisputed power, the run-up to the elections showed serious signs for the first time in Erdogan’s term that he could be democratically replaced. Competitor Kilicdaroglu was leading in several polls. Turkey is deeply divided and the mood is tense. Nevertheless, as far as is known, the elections passed without any significant incidents. According to an initial assessment by the electoral authority, there were no serious problems. Opposition politicians reported some minor incidents from several provinces.

There were and are doubts about the figures from the Turkish state news agency Anadolu. This is close to the incumbent government and is suspected of embellishing the figures in favor of Erdogan’s camp, as various circles have accused it of doing.

For example, the opposition mayors of the metropolitan cities of Istanbul and Ankara repeatedly told the media that the information could not be trusted.

Challenger Kilicdaroglu also accused Erdogan’s AKP party of blocking the count in opposition strongholds with objections. Erdogan also indirectly accused the opposition of sabotage, but without being specific.

In addition to the president, the Turks have also re-elected parliament. The election authorities have not yet confirmed the results of this election. However, it became clear that Erdogan’s government alliance can also defend its majority here. As of 4 a.m. Monday, Erdogan’s alliance is expected to have 266 seats, the opposition coalition 168. The president has had extensive powers since the introduction of a presidential system in 2018, but parliament is weaker with its 600 MPs.

The election campaign was considered unfair, also because of the government’s superior media power. Erdogan had sharply attacked the opposition, describing his opponent as a “drunkard” and “terrorist”. The opposition responded with a positive campaign. Even before the second round, Erdogan will be able to count on most of the media and the government majority in parliament.

That’s what Erdogan says

Despite what was by far the worst voting result of his career, Erdogan was in good spirits as he appeared before his supporters after the preliminary data became available.

He also questioned the correctness of the preliminary results. The incumbent president said, among other things, that he was “way ahead”. He was also optimistic for a long time that he could still get 50 percent in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu says so

Kilicdaroglu appeared before the media that evening together with the party leaders of his six-party alliance. “Despite his slander and insults, Erdogan has not achieved the result he expected,” he said.

The challenger was also combative and ready for the next round despite falling behind for the expected second round. If the nation wants a second round, he and his camp are ready.

How should the result be assessed?

The choice is indicative. It is feared that the NATO country under Erdogan could become even more autocratic in the next five years. Kilicdaroglu, 74, is a candidate for a broad six-party coalition. He promises a return to a parliamentary system, democracy and the rule of law.

The election is also being closely monitored internationally. A new government would have consequences for conflicts in the region, such as the war in Syria, but also for relations with the EU and Germany.

Even if Erdogan can still win in two weeks – for the 69-year-old the result is a disappointment. He has won every national election in his 20 years in power. Erdogan first became prime minister in 2003 and has been president since 2014. The aura of the invincible is lost in this run-off.

The important role of ultranationalist Ogan

Sinan Ogan of the ultra-nationalist Ata Alliance came far behind in third place with about 5.3 percent. The outsider can still play an important role. In the second round, it will be important which recommendation he makes in advance. In his positions, he is considered much closer to Erdogan and actually linked to the president, even though he spoke out against him during the election campaign. However, this was mainly seen as a tactical maneuver, as he probably wanted to attack voices in the AKP camp.

This is how it goes

The counting of the last votes continues. If neither candidate reaches 50 percent, which is now considered highly likely, there will be a second round on May 28.

All eyes are now on the Grand National Assembly in Ankara. Erdogan’s Islamist-conservative AKP and its ultra-nationalist partner MHP are likely to retain an absolute majority there. In this case, Erdogan can argue with the risk of a government crisis before the second round of the elections. And he promptly did so on Monday evening. He was sure voters would prefer “security and stability” in a runoff, he said.

Erdogan alluded to the fact that parliament and the president could theoretically block each other if the majority of MPs go to the governing alliance, but the presidency goes to the opposition, or vice versa. While the president can issue a decree without parliament’s approval, if parliament passes a law on the same subject, the decree would become invalid. In any case, there will be two difficult weeks for Turkey. The national currency, the lira, could continue to lose value due to the uncertain situation.

All sides are now facing an entirely new situation – it is not only the first runoff for Erdogan, but also for challenger Kilicdaroglu – and for the citizens. The president has only been directly elected by the people since 2014.

With material from the SDA and DPA news agencies.