Tension in Turkey is high. On Sunday, the country will elect a new president and a new parliament. Things are getting tight for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, according to opinion polls, he will be in a close race with Kemalist CHP’s top candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The major competing electoral alliances agree on only one point: these are fateful elections for Turkey.
After 20 years as president, these Turkish elections could really happen: Erdoğan should leave his state palace. For his country it would mark the end of an era, a political turning point. But the audience is very nervous. There is quite a bit of fear and respect for this possible bang. Because in parts of Turkish politics there are hardly any ideas about how things should go from now on.
The opposition in Turkey has one main goal: to defeat Erdoğan in elections.
But whether the six parties in challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s alliance can build a stable government through the legislature is unclear. It is also questionable whether Erdoğan would initiate a peaceful transfer of power in the event of an election defeat. In any case, stormy to chaotic times await Turkey after these elections. That is why the international partners are also looking forward to what will happen in the NATO country in the coming weeks.
No trust in the political opponent
After years of Erdoğan rule, Turkish society is deeply divided, which is one of the reasons why there is so much mutual distrust before these elections. The Turkish president has spent the last decade building a system of government tailored to his needs, ensuring him the greatest possible power. He attacked freedom of the press, the judiciary is no longer independent, the separation of powers and thus Turkish democracy have been seriously damaged.
The opponents of Erdoğan’s Islamist conservative party AKP therefore do not trust that the Turkish government will allow the counting of the ballots in these elections to proceed without complications. As a result, many people have volunteered to be election observers and want to check the numbers on election night. “We have a lot of visitors,” said Gonca Açıkalın of the organization “Die Wahlstimme und mehr” to the ARD “Weltspiegel”.
At least the largest parties – the AKP and the Kemalist CHP – would like to send observers to all polling stations. There are also honorary observers and the OSCE is also in the country to monitor the elections. Polls in recent months show that Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu could be close. That’s why every vote counts and every vote should count well. An overview of the polls for the presidential election can be found here.
Kılıçdaroğlu draws a contrasting picture
Even though polls in Turkey can often deviate from the actual political mood due to their closeness to the party, Kılıçdaroğlu is in the lead in most surveys. Initially, the candidate was laughed at because he had never won an election. But during the election campaign, he managed to present himself as Erdoğan’s countermodel.
He preaches love and shares videos of his humble kitchen on social media as Erdoğan rules from a palace. In doing so, he took the wind out of the president’s sails. Because Erdoğan also had to grumble less about his opponents and strike more conciliatory notes, sometimes even with a song.
Still, the incumbent president is a good campaigner. In the past, he has always managed to capitalize on his personal popularity ratings in elections. But this time it seems different – and there are reasons for that:
Erdoğan’s loyal supporters
Taken together, all these points would be decisive in many countries, but that may not be the case in Turkey. Erdoğan still has a lot of support in society. This is also because the opposition has hardly put forward its own concepts. Kılıçdaroğlu’s message: He wants to do things differently from the current Turkish government. But how remains open in many ways.
An example of this is refugee policy. Kılıçdaroğlu announced that he wants to renegotiate the refugee deal with the European Union and send 3.5 million refugees back to Syria. But so far he has not taken into account Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who in turn is demanding that Turkish troops withdraw from Syrian territory. An agreement is not in sight.
These vague political ideas of the opposition alliance allow the AKP to warn of chaos during the election campaign. Erdoğan’s party uses the narrative that devout Muslims would be stripped of the right to publicly practice their faith if there was a change of power. Kılıçdaroğlu has no intention of doing so, but it was the AKP that, after its formation more than 20 years ago, gave a political voice to many conservatives in Turkey. In the past, for example, wearing a headscarf was prohibited in state buildings or at universities.
Above all, conservative voters view Erdoğan as a defender of their faith, and despite all the economic hardship, this has created loyal supporters of the incumbent party.
How stable can Turkey be governed?
Political chaos in Turkey threatens regardless of the opposition. Two electoral alliances are fighting against each other – with parties that do not have their own candidates for the presidential election and call on their supporters to vote for Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu. That support is of course not for nothing: Erdoğan would have to make concessions to, for example, the far-right MHP.
The task for Kılıçdaroğlu is even bigger: the CHP politician should be supported by six parties even as president. These include conservative forces such as iYi, but there are also smaller splinter parties that are nationalist and anti-Semitic.
Another challenge for Kılıçdaroğlu as president could be that the AKP could remain the strongest force in parliament. For new draft laws, he would therefore need the pro-Kurdish HDP for a majority. Getting all these parties behind a government policy can be difficult. But the main goal initially seems to be to force Erdoğan into political retirement.
Fear of unrest and violence
Ultimately, defeating the longtime president and ending the Erdoğan era is the opposition’s first major hurdle. The fear that the Turkish president and his supporters will not accept defeat without a fight is therefore perhaps also great.
That is why Kılıçdaroğlu has already called on Turkish citizens to stay at home on election night to avoid riots. Turkey often experienced military coups, violent unrest and too often Turkish tanks rolled over the streets and bridges of major cities. Because of the past, many people are probably afraid that such a political turning point as the end of Erdoğan’s era can only be achieved by force.
In which direction the country is heading remains unclear. Above all, NATO partners do not want to give the impression that they want to interfere in the elections. That could enable Erdoğan to justify defeat with electoral fraud by the West, t-online learned from diplomatic circles.
One thing is clear: for the EU, Kılıçdaroğlu would be the candidate who, if elected, could give new impetus to relations between Brussels and Ankara. Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, fears losing an ally in Erdoğan. Sunday’s election result will therefore have consequences far beyond Turkey.
Used sources:
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
