Billions for the EU arms industry, but will the ammunition arrive on time?

The Ukrainian army still has to be patient: the tanks and howitzers of several tons are still stuck in the dark brown mud, which is dripping down to the knees. But as soon as the «Rasputiza», the usual wet period at the beginning of spring, is over, it can start.

As soon as the ground is drier again, Kiev should signal its long-prepared spring offensive. From then on, the Ukrainian artillery would have to fire intensively at the Russian positions – and use a lot of ammunition accordingly.

Ukraine already fires more than 5,000 artillery shells a day. If they switch from defense to attack mode, the number will increase significantly again. Rapid supplies of ammunition from the west are all the more urgent for the success of the offensive.

EU promises a million artillery shells – but can they deliver?

In March, the EU pledged to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells. The problem: stocks are even running out in most European arsenals. To make good on the promise, EU officials in Brussels have devised a three-step plan.

This is simple: the EU states must first use their reserves and immediately send them to Ukraine. At the same time, the gaps in the camps must be quickly filled through joint purchases of ammunition. The European arms industry will provide, which will receive a major financial injection from the EU to boost its capabilities. All in all, the plan, with generous compensation from Brussels, will cost around three billion euros.

Only: the EU wouldn’t be the EU if it didn’t get into a bitter dispute over the small print. Specifically, it is France that insists that ammunition purchases financed with EU funds can only be made in the EU. Instead of British, American or South Korean ammunition, the grenades would be “made in Europe”.

For weeks there has been discussion about what exactly that means: can the fuse come from South Africa and the gunpowder from Australia, as long as the grenades are assembled in the EU? Or should all parts of the value chain be manufactured on EU territory?

While France takes the view that the EU’s “strategic sovereignty” and the preservation of its own productive capacity are at stake here, critics counter that Paris is primarily concerned with its domestic defense industry. In April, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, after a meeting with EU ministers, expressed remorse: it was “frustrating” that the EU was unable to implement its own decisions. Ukraine would pay the cost of this passivity in human lives, Kuleba said on Twitter.

EU Commissioner for Industry: “We must switch to a war economy”

Another question is whether the European arms industry can meet the great need for ammunition at all. To find out, EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton, also a Frenchman, has now inspected the munitions factories. Today, the required 155 millimeter bullets and the old Soviet caliber of 152 millimeters are manufactured in twelve EU countries.

Breton concludes: The industrial base for ammunition production is in place and has the potential to meet the needs of both Ukraine and EU countries. But for that she needs a decent boost. Breton: «When it comes to defense, our industry must now switch to war economy». To provide the right incentives, the EU therefore wants to mobilize €1 billion. And: In the future, governments should even be able to tap into the money pots of the EU Cohesion Fund and the Corona Reconstruction Fund to build up the industry. A controversial measure that will certainly provide food for discussion.

Meanwhile, information is piling up that Russia is also suffering from a shortage of ammunition and does not have the capacity to compensate. According to British intelligence, Russia does not have enough ammunition to stay on the offensive in Ukraine.

Although Moscow drives the production of the arms industry, it does not meet demand. Again and again there are also disputes between the Wagner mercenaries and the regular army. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin openly accuses the Defense Ministry of letting his men die of “shell hunger”. (aargauerzeitung.ch)