Bad omens for the “Tories” in the borough

8,092. It is the number of positions that will be selected in municipal elections partly that England and Wales will celebrate May 4, some choices that British conservatives know do not bring them any good and therefore stick to the recommendation of the famous writer William Shakespeare: “Expectation is the root of all trouble”. At least that’s what it appears from the statements of senior Tory officials in recent days, in which they have almost admitted that defeat is inevitable.

“Independent expectations are that we will lose more than 1000 seats and that Labor will make big gains,” Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands said last week. Although, of course, Hands’ words are a confirmation of bad prospects, they also tried to calm their own. As? Giving them a consolation prize. The Conservatives have more than 3,300 seats in 230 disputed municipalities and are the first national force in terms of the number of positions. Labor is in second place with 2,131 councilors, and in order to seize the title of the party with the most councilors, they must achieve very good results.

The latest YouGov survey, published on April 18, ensures that the Labor Party remains the first choice of British voters, with an intention to vote of 45% compared to the Tories’ 27%. However, the demographic study reveals that the difference between the two formations is no longer greater than 20 points, as it was a few months ago.

Conservatives are also convinced that the image of their leader and prime minister, Rishi Sunak, help them. Sunak is more popular than his own party and today 26% of Britons think he is right for Downing Street 10, compared to 28% who believe Keir Starmer’s Labor would do better. With the controversial Boris Johnson and the fleeting Liz Truss, the deficit was more than 20 points.

Despite his obvious weakness within the party and the fact that there are still no great results, the leadership of the current prime minister seems to be convincing. “We were in a very difficult, if not hopeless, position, but now we seem to be in a difficult position,” Tory Robert Hayward told The Guardian a few days ago.

Invoices

Solving the conflict with the European Union over Northern Ireland is a great success that Sunak has achieved so far. However, his great goals continue to go unfulfilled. Inflation continues to show no real sign of abating, a new wave of nurses’ strikes threatens to worsen the health crisis, and the recent resignation of his second-in-command, Dominic Raab, over workplace harassment could take its toll in the election.

The municipal elections in May are symbolic, as they are the last test before the general elections in 2024. Some in the party fear that some bad results will serve as an excuse for the most radical sectors to reopen the debate on the leadership of the conservative formation. . The scenario that Johnson’s supporters crave.