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After a little over a year, one can say: the war has developed for Ukraine much better than most observers predicted. Russia’s attempt to subjugate its neighbor in a very short time has failed. At the same time, it is difficult to be optimistic about the further course of the war.
As Kiev and Moscow prepare their next steps on the battlefield, leaked US documents show that both armies are in bad shape. The Ukrainian army in particular would struggle to gather enough personnel and equipment for a successful counter-offensive. And further: the East will be “heading for a stalemate” and the result will likely be “a protracted post-2023 war”.
Ukrainian situation is “failure of the West”
For the American political scientist Andrew Michta (67), the West also contributes to the unfortunate situation in Ukraine. In an op-ed for the Atlantic Council, he writes: “One of the reasons why this war is still going on is the extreme reluctance of the West to supply the Ukrainian army with arms and ammunition.” The West only gives Ukraine enough to survive – but not to win.
The United States alone has provided more than $25 billion worth of equipment, including 160 advanced artillery pieces, 38 Himars medium-range missiles, hundreds of armored vehicles, and tens of thousands of advanced types of munitions.
Allies like Poland and the Czech Republic have done even more (relatively, not absolutely). They have provided hundreds of Soviet style tanks, a range of modern artillery systems and all sorts of non-lethal support.
Even the initially hesitant Germany sent some modern guns and rocket launchers, some anti-aircraft systems and more. In total, the West has sent more than 320 tanks, 2,400 other armored vehicles, 450 artillery pieces and more than 135 air defense systems to Ukraine, and fighter jets are on their way.
The United States alone has provided more than $25 billion worth of equipment, including 160 advanced artillery pieces, 38 Himars medium-range missiles, hundreds of armored vehicles, and tens of thousands of advanced types of munitions.
Allies like Poland and the Czech Republic have done even more (relatively, not absolutely). They have provided hundreds of Soviet style tanks, a range of modern artillery systems and all sorts of non-lethal support.
Even the initially hesitant Germany sent some modern guns and rocket launchers, some anti-aircraft systems and more. In total, the West has sent more than 320 tanks, 2,400 other armored vehicles, 450 artillery pieces and more than 135 air defense systems to Ukraine, and fighter jets are on their way.
“The story of their struggle is also the story of the West’s failure,” says Michta. Too few weapons, too slow deliveries – all this stands in the way of Ukraine’s victory – or at least a successful counter-offensive.
West must now supply weapons
Eastern Europe expert Alexander Dubowy (39) explains in an interview with Blick why this is so important. “The planned offensive carries great risks for Kiev, as it is Ukraine’s last chance to win the war militarily. If this offensive fails, Kiev risks not only losing the initiative at the front, but also being drawn into a long and costly trench warfare; ultimately with hardly foreseeable consequences for the outcome of the war.”
Therefore, it is time for the West to stop getting in the way of itself and supply Ukraine with the tanks, missiles and other weapons it needs for victory. This is reported by international observers. Because: more tanks means more defenses. More missiles means more attacks on the enemy. More fighter jets means better protection for the population. All in all, this means better chances for a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Will there be peace talks soon?
At this point, everything points to a stalemate. And with this prospect, the call for a diplomatic end to the war is getting louder. But with both Moscow and Kiev pledging to continue the fight, the conditions for a negotiated settlement are not yet ripe.
Eastern Europe expert Dubowy agrees. “The only realistic chance of a lasting ceasefire and peace negotiations would arise only in the event of a clear military success for Ukraine.”
Ulrich Schmid (57), Russia expert at the University of St. Gallen, also tells Blick: “Negotiations are not realistic at the moment because there are no negotiating partners, no subject to be negotiated and no negotiating language.” In addition, the two warring sides still refuse to sit down at a common table.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
