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Tensions between China and Taiwan are rising. The temporary highlight was China’s three-day military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. But even if the Chinese ships and fighter jets slowly withdraw, the fear of an armed conflict remains.
A war between the South and East China Seas may sound a long way off. But an escalation between Taiwan and China would affect millions of people in the West. Because Europe and the US depend on Taiwan. Answers to the most important questions.
1
Why is Taiwan so important to the world?
The island state of Taiwan is only about 36,000 square kilometers in size. And still one of the most important countries for the world economy. As Simona Grano (44), Taiwan expert at the University of Zurich, explains to Blick, there are three reasons for this.
Most importantly, according to Grano, about 60 percent of global semiconductor production takes place in Taiwan. Of the smaller chips – which are between five and ten nanometers in size – 92 percent are made in Taiwan. “Which countries will have access to this highly specialized industry in the future will determine who will have the upper hand technologically.”
In addition, Taiwan has “tremendous geostrategic and geopolitical value to the United States and its allies in the region,” explained Grano. And: “The island state proves that a society belonging to the Chinese cultural field is compatible with democratic values, openness and transparency.”
2
What happens if China invades Taiwan?
A Chinese attack on Taiwan would be fatal for the global economy. “It would be impossible for Taiwan to continue to operate normally and supply semiconductors to the rest of the world,” said Grano. The global chip market would collapse. “Trade would be blocked, supply chains would be disrupted, and world trade as we know it would be over.”
The sea routes can also become a problem. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (60), about 50 percent of the world’s merchant ships pass through the Taiwan Strait every day. A war would undermine this central trade route – with far-reaching consequences for global supply chains.
3
Is there an alternative to Taiwan?
Yes, at least in part. For example, South Korea already produces semiconductors and chips. Factories abroad could not fully replace Taiwan’s loss for the time being. “The US is therefore pressuring Taiwan to build semiconductor factories in Arizona,” says Grano.
In addition, the EU wants to invest 43 billion euros in new chip factories, the US even 280 billion dollars, writes Spiegel. But it will take at least three to four years for these factories to be up and running. That wouldn’t bode well for Taiwan in the face of a Chinese invasion, warns Grano: “Many fear it could become less important to the US and thus more expendable.”
4
Does chip production serve as a “shield” against China?
China is also dependent on Taiwanese chip production. In 2021, China was the main export country for the island nation. So could that prevent China from invading? Only to a limited extent, Grano estimates. China should actually first ensure that it is no longer dependent on production in Taiwan. But: “The restoration of China’s territorial sovereignty has an ideological component that pushes the party to push aside pragmatic considerations.”
5
How should the West respond to an attack?
According to Grano, Western countries, including Switzerland, should not remain neutral if China attacks Taiwan. They should condemn the attack – perhaps even impose sanctions on China. That can turn out to be expensive, as the EU, US and China trade a lot with each other and are economically dependent on each other.
The consequences of any attempt at forced unification should be obvious to Beijing, Grano said: “Permanently hostile relations with the West, the consolidation of a coalition determined to contain China’s power in the Indo-Pacific region, and massive, coordinated economic punishments.”
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
