Why Sanna Marin was defeated in the Finnish elections

The mutual race

The survey results showed beforehand that the race would be extremely close on Sunday: three sides were almost tied. The conservative National Coalition Party led only marginally ahead of the right-wing populist party De Finnen and the social democrats of Sanna Marin. In the end, the Conservatives came out on top with 20.8 percent, ahead of the Finns with 20.1 percent and the Marin Social Democrats with 19.9 percent. The turnout was 71.9 percent, about the level of the previous parliamentary elections in 2019.

In the last election in 2019, the three parties were only less than a percentage point apart. Then the social democrats managed to win for themselves, this year they got the short end of the stick.

This despite the fact that they received more votes than in 2019 and thus gained three new seats in parliament. A fact that Sanna Marin was happy with despite the defeat. The problem: the other two parties did the same – and even a little better.

The National Coalition Party, led by former finance minister Petteri Orpo, won a narrow election with 48 of 200 seats. The Finns won 46 seats, the Social Democrats 43.

Late Sunday night, Marin admitted her electoral defeat:

Government debt more problematic than dance videos

Actually, Sanna Marin is popular with the Finns. She led the country not only through the Corona crisis, but also to NATO membership in view of the war in Ukraine. A decision that all parties support. However, the young prime minister was not spared controversy.

Last August, a private video leaked to the public showing Sanna Marin dancing and partying, making international waves. In her own country, a discussion flared up whether she was not too doubtful for her position, and critics accused her of not taking her job seriously. After speculating whether drugs were involved at the party, Marin took a drug test. This turned out negative. Internationally she received a lot of encouragement and only further confirmed her image of the cool head of government. A short time later, things calmed down in their own country, so that this incident hardly played a role in the election defeat.

Much more serious was probably the fact that the national debt had risen sharply under Marin's rule. Even though the coronavirus pandemic has taken its toll, much of the new spending and budget deficit is attributable to Sanna Marin, writes the Swedish economist and journalist Fredrik Erixon for the British magazine The Spectator. Her government - a coalition of smaller centre-left parties - has increased government spending and introduced a lot of bureaucracy into business.

The president of the victorious National Coalition Party, Petteri Orpo, accused her of economic mismanagement and wants to take new measures. During his election campaign, he advocated both austerity measures and tax cuts. Meanwhile, Marin had no intention of turning away from her previous business. This may have increased voters' confidence in the former finance minister and his new plans.

Rarely a second term

While Erixon continues to write for the "Spectator", it is almost common practice in Finland for the Prime Minister not to survive more than one term in office:

Since 1917, only two prime ministers have served two terms. On the one hand the Social Democrat Paavo Lipponen between 1995 and 2003, on the other hand Matti Vanhanen of the Finnish Center Party between 2003 and 2010.

Moreover, according to Erixon, all major Finnish parties are centrist and pragmatic, the difference between left and right is small. He therefore does not believe that the Finnish electorate has made an ideological choice. After the turbulent years at Sanna Marin, she probably only wished for more peace in the board.

What now

To run the country, Orpo must vote according to Finland's proportional representation more than 100 seats in the 200-seat parliament. That should be a challenge. He can form a right-wing coalition with the nationalist Finnish party led by Riikka Purra or form a coalition with Marin's social democrats. To get more than 100 seats, he will also have to appeal to at least one of the medium-sized and smaller parties.

After his election victory, the 53-year-old was open:

The question now arises whether the Coalition Party can find common ground with the Finn Party, writes the Helsinki Times. During the election campaign, the Finns campaigned for drastic restrictions on immigration from outside the EU and postponement of climate action. The party's long-term goal should also be a departure from the EU. Orpo's party, on the other hand, is in favor of more immigration of migrant workers for economic reasons and has already announced that it does not want to compromise on climate goals.

A coalition with the Social Democrats is also likely to be difficult due to widely differing views on economic policy.

It will therefore probably take several weeks or even months before the new Finnish government is finally installed. (Sat)