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There is currently a heated debate about how to end the war in Ukraine one day. On the battlefield – or at the negotiating table?
According to an estimate by experts from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), at least Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) would not be interested in negotiations. The Kremlin boss is convinced his troops can achieve a “complete victory”, the ISW writes.
Offensive operations equate to strategic misconduct
Putin simply does not see himself in a position to compromise with Ukraine or the West. Instead, he remains focused on achieving his original war goals through a protracted conflict.
The continuation of Russian offensive operations around the highly competitive city of Bakhmut and along the front lines in Luhansk and western Donetsk are an indication of how serious the Kremlin head is with his war plans.
However, the shot could also backfire for Putin. “Putin’s continuation of these Russian offensive operations amounts to strategic misconduct,” the ISW estimates. So the Kremlin chief is using Russian fighting power for pointless gains instead of preparing his troops for a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Putin wants to make the West war-weary
On the other hand, Putin could also be pursuing just that. Because of his stubborn persistence in offensive operations, there is a chance that the war will be postponed indefinitely, the ISW writes. According to the Kremlin chief’s calculations, at some point the West will stop providing expensive military aid. Ukraine would thus be at the mercy of Russia and Putin could dictate his terms for a negotiated settlement.
These include the international recognition of Russia’s annexation of all of Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, Ukrainian “neutrality”, the “demilitarization” of Ukraine and the “denazification” of the Ukrainian government.
“A successful series of Ukrainian counter-offensives is therefore almost certainly necessary to persuade Putin to negotiate on terms other than the achievement of all his stated goals,” the ISW estimates.
However, it seems unlikely that Putin would ever accept this military reality. Rather, he might choose to keep fighting to achieve all of his goals. A negotiated solution could therefore be unattainable. (ceded)
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
