“Post-apocalyptic”: Ukrainian fortress in Avdiivka could fall

It is a drastic statement by the military chief of Avdiivka: “You have to go, you have to pack your things, especially with your children,” Vitaly Barabash recently wrote on the short message service Telegram in an appeal to the last citizens in the city.

The head of the eastern Ukrainian city’s military administration also announced the evacuation of municipal utilities, the “last heroes” that kept the city running to some extent. Avdiivka looks more and more like a city from ‘post-apocalyptic films’, according to Barabash.

The dramatic words from the embattled city show how delicate the military situation has become for the Ukrainian defenders. Avdiivka is considered a fortress that has withstood Russian attacks since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. But the Kremlin army has been advancing on the city’s northern and southern flanks in recent months and has at least partial success. Now the encirclement of Avdiivka by Russian troops threatens.

The situation in the eastern Ukrainian city has continued to deteriorate in recent months. In terms of the number of attacks, Avdiivka is currently the main target of the Russian war effort, along with Bakhmut. The Ukrainian army is already talking about a “second Bakhmut”. But is the city in danger of falling soon, as Russian war propagandists claim?

As in Bakhmut, the Kremlin army has so far failed to penetrate Avdiivka head-on. One reason for this is that the city has been under heavy fighting since 2014. Located just a few miles from the separatist stronghold of Donetsk, Avdiivka has repeatedly had to fend off attacks by pro-Russian separatists.

Due to the permanent threat, the Ukrainian defense in the city is considered to be well developed. The factories of the local coal and chemical industry in the north of the city are considered particularly difficult to conquer.

The previous attempts by the Russians to take the city were all the more costly. videos on social networks, intended to show failed Russian attacks, In abundance. According to Ukrainian information, March 18 was a particularly bloody day for the Russian attackers:

On this day, the Kremlin army is said to have lost three infantry companies (about 300 soldiers), 15 tanks and nine armored personnel carriers in attacks on surrounding villages. The information is difficult to verify because the Russian military does not disclose its losses.

And yet the Russian tactic of getting through the villages seems to have been successful, at least in part: Avdiivka is more than ever at risk of being surrounded by the Russian attackers. In particular, the capture of the villages of Krasnohorivka in the north and Vodyane in the south further embarrassed the defenders.

Should the Russians actually succeed in encircling the city, Ukrainian units would be cut off from supplies. But to do this, the Russian army would have to capture other villages in the vicinity, which, of course, is difficult enough for them. Moreover, the Ukrainians seem to have managed to free themselves from time to time, as the war blogger “War_Mapper” reports:

Last Thursday alone, the Russians attacked the city a total of 22 times, the Ukrainian portal Pravda quoted a Ukrainian military spokesman as saying. A week earlier there were about 95 attacks a day, mostly with Russian artillery or tanks. The declining attack rate is due to massive Russian losses in personnel and equipment. “The enemy has already exhausted its main forces,” the spokesman said.

But despite the losses, the Russian attackers continue to concentrate their forces on the city. The Ukrainian General Staff reported about a dozen Russian offensive operations in the city Monday morning — an indication that Kremlin chief Putin is still bent on resolving the conflict militarily, according to the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Ukrainian secret service also reports that the infamous Wagner mercenary group will soon intensify attacks on Avdiivka, possibly to force a military breakthrough.

However, it seems doubtful that Wagner’s mercenaries can make a difference. Despite partial military successes, for example at Soledar, the private militia has not yet achieved resounding success. In addition, the head of the troop, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is slowly running out of recruits. The shelling of Avdiivka continued on Sunday. This time the Russian army attacked the city from the air, Hover bombs would also have been used. The situation is becoming increasingly dangerous for the approximately 2,000 remaining civilians.