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What is Russia planning to do with Moldova? A strategy paper reportedly from the Russian presidential government reportedly outlines a detailed strategy for the former Soviet republic. The plan was leaked to various international media, including the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, NDR and WDR reports on the newspaper: if the Kremlin has its way, the small country must break away from the West – and strive for a future at the side of Moscow.

The note, apparently drafted in the summer of 2021, contains concrete plans on how the Kremlin intends to promote pro-Russian tendencies in Moldova in three phases until 2030, while at the same time preventing the country from turning west towards NATO and the European Union.

The document appears to have come from the same Kremlin experts who were simultaneously preparing a document on Moscow’s creeping annexation of Belarus. The “SZ” and its partners had already reported on this in February.

This time, however, Moscow’s plan for Moldova is less focused on integrating the country into a Russian-dominated union state – but in the medium term it is all about establishing a puppet state that submits to Moscow’s will.

A senior Western intelligence official who read both papers says Moscow’s goal in Moldova is “to increase pro-Russian influence in the country”. Russia sees the country “rather as a pro-Russian buffer” than as part of a new Russian empire. The Kremlin apparently wants to “put a stop sign to the West” and “use all means to prevent the country from joining the EU and NATO”.

Little Moldova has 2.6 million inhabitants with a Russian minority and is located between Romania and Ukraine. The country, which was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, has taken a pro-Western turn in recent years, angering Moscow. Moldova was granted EU candidate country status in 2022. The former Soviet Republic of Moldova is not part of NATO; it is politically divided between pro-European and pro-Russian forces.

riots in Moldova

Only about two weeks ago there was violent unrest in Moldova. Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in the capital Chisinau to demonstrate against the country’s pro-Western government.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu also spoke of Moscow’s plan to incite violent riots and attacks on Moldovan state institutions and disguise them as protests. “The aim is to transform the constitutional and legitimate order into an illegitimate one (…) so that Russia can use Moldova in its war against Ukraine,” said the small republic’s pro-European head of state.

According to the leaked Kremlin document, one of Russia’s central goals for the next decade is “to counter attempts by outside actors to interfere in the internal affairs of the republic, to strengthen NATO’s influence and to of the Russian Federation”. . In this context, the United States, countries of the European Union, Turkey and Ukraine are highlighted.

At the same time, Moscow apparently wants to offer assistance when it comes to Moldova’s possible participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – associations dominated by Russia.

Transnistria is in the center of a possible escalation

The war in Ukraine could mean Moscow has less time to achieve its goals with Moldova. There is concern in the EU and the US that Moscow wants to create facts more quickly and that a possible coup in Moldova could also put pressure on Ukraine from the west. This is apparent, among other things, from the escalation of the situation in Transnistria, vis-à-vis Russia.

The self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria is a narrow strip of land bordering Ukraine with its own government and administration. The region still belongs to Moldova under international law, but is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. The population of Transnistria is part Ukrainian, part Russian and part Moldavian.

The Moldovan secret service has repeatedly accused Russia of planning an invasion of Moldova from Transnistria. A period between January and April is possible. Russia plans to connect Transnistria and Moldova.

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(t-online/aj)