Let the revolution die!

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Iran, Russia, China: Many people in these countries are dissatisfied with the government and express their dissatisfaction in demonstrations. However, protests are usually nipped in the bud – and often by force. It’s a long way to the long-awaited revolution. In Iran, for example, tens of thousands took to the streets and dozens were subsequently executed. On Monday, 22,000 protesters were pardoned by the mullahs’ regime.

In many countries, revolutions have led to changes in power and systems. Why are the people of Iran, Russia and China failing to turn things around? Ekkart Zimmermann (76), emeritus professor of sociology and revolution expert, explains the reasons to Blick.

What is needed for a revolution?
Ekkart carpenter: The main condition is the gap in the elites, but this alone is not enough. It requires the fusion of mass elements, such as students with workers, the elimination of violent organizations such as the police, the army or palace guards, as well as mass impoverishment or extreme moral outrage.

What do you mean by moral outrage?
I am thinking, for example, of the collar affair – the fraud scandal before the French Revolution in 1789 – or, more recently, the poisoning of schoolgirls in Iran. This can seem outrageous.

Yet in Iran – where many Iranians, especially Iranian women, remember the free life before the mullahs – there hasn’t been enough of a revolution. Why is there no coup in sight?
In Iran, the factor of religion plays a major role. It connects individuals with the professional state of priests who decide on salvation, that is, on this world and the afterlife. So there is a practically unbeatable combination. In addition, the overthrown shah in 1979 had built large groups of the population against him and no lasting support in the military, leaving many Iranians with no desire to go back to the old system.

Why has there been no revolution in Russia until now?
There is a monopoly of opinion. The Russian people believe in the myth of the threat from the West because of the lack of comparative information. This is reminiscent of the German people in the First and Second World Wars. The bourgeoisie went along with this and thought that the Führer would sort it out – they had their own justifications for the attacks that had taken place.

Are revolutions even possible in countries like Iran, Russia or China?
I think so. Many people strive for a Western standard of living. But on the other hand, there are groups that are ruthless, meaning they derive clear benefits from defending the status quo.

What does a typical revolution look like?
There are none, they are all combinations of individual conflict forms. The so-called peaceful German revolution was only possible because the regime in the Eastern Bloc, both Soviet and East German, had not reformed. If you go further back in history, you can see how the French copied the English before their 1789 revolution and the English later copied the French before their 1832 electoral reform with their negative example of the reign of terror.

Is this impression deceptive, or are there fewer revolutions today than in the past?
Revolutions are extremely rare. A revolution should not be confused with a revolutionary situation where a system of domination is challenged and there are three possible consequences: crackdown, which is the most common, civil war, which is the bloodiest way, and revolution as the successful overthrow. of the system of domination and society.

What is the moment when a movement becomes a revolution?
The crucial moment is when private opinion becomes public opinion and you realize that something is wrong in the country. But you can never predict a revolution.

How big is the role of modern technology and digitization?
They tend to help the revolutionaries because they can better organize and also the surveillance ordered by a totalitarian regime can fail.

Where is the next place most likely to see a revolution?
In sub-Saharan Africa, where you can most likely expect palace revolutions. Where there are important mineral resources, foreigners are quick to interfere and associate with corrupt local elites.

Source: Blick

Amelia

I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.