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When two quarrel, rejoices … China! War has been raging in Ukraine for more than a year – and the longer it goes on, the more suspicions arise that the emerging Asian superpower could emerge victorious.
The rhetoric between the US and China is getting sharper, as was evident from a controversial speech by Xi Jinping (69) at the National People’s Congress. Unusually harshly, he accuses the West of trying to prevent China’s rise.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (56) repeatedly stressed the importance of the Russian alliance at the People’s Congress: “The more turbulent the world is, the more stable Russian-Chinese relations should become.” But in China it is hardly about true friendship.
Because the country of ruler Xi benefits from a Russia weakened by war and sanctions. The reasons for this are diverse.
1
How does China benefit from this war?
Russia is losing some of its key trading partners to Western sanctions – and must now refocus on the East. This, in turn, allows China to dictate prices and terms of trade, writes Italy’s « L’Economia ». This applies to raw materials such as gas, oil and copper, which are exported from Russia to China. For example, according to Reuters, China can currently buy crude oil from Russia for $2 a barrel cheaper than oil from Oman, which is currently selling for $16 a barrel.
Because China benefits from the favorable negotiating conditions with Russia, it can also be more open in negotiations with other partners such as the EU or Australia. A few days ago, Australia announced that it would focus more on India in coal, gas and mineral exports, as there was friction with China. Conversely, after the departure of the West, China is largely the sole supplier of high-tech products to Russia. It can dictate the purchase price of computers, semiconductors, cars and chemicals.
But China is not only acting from a position of strength. Because the economy of the country is not doing well. In the long term, observers expect significantly slower growth. Cheap raw materials from Russia could cushion the downturn somewhat, at least temporarily.
2
Does Russia also benefit from this?
Due to the sanctions imposed by the West, the People’s Republic of China remains one of the few opportunities for the Kremlin to export its goods, especially gas and oil. By 2022, India will buy about 15 percent of the approximately 150 billion cubic meters of methane Russia produces annually. But China remains the most important customer, buying 1.72 million barrels of crude oil from Russia every day.
Nevertheless: Russia cannot live on Asia alone, it also needs the West. The war and sanctions have had a major impact on business in Russia. According to estimates by the World Bank, Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by as much as 3.9 percent in 2022.
At the same time, China must be careful not to weaken Russia too much. ETH Zurich’s China expert Brian Carlson (44) on Blick: “If Russia suffers a total defeat in Ukraine, it would diminish its value as a partner for China.”
3
Why does China not want to end the war?
Beijing hopes a protracted war in Ukraine will reduce US focus on China. Amid rising tensions, China plans to increase its military spending by as much as 7.2 percent, the People’s Congress announced. On the one hand, people want to prepare for the “growing threat in the external environment”. On the other hand, according to the “Frankfurter Rundschau”, observers expect preparations for a conflict with Taiwan. All issues where the eagle-eyed of the US government is not welcome with Xi.
At the same time, a prolonged conflict could further divide the West. Already at the beginning of the war, observers warned of such scenarios. Although the West seems more united than ever after US President Joe Biden’s (80) visit to Ukraine, the risk remains. There are still disagreements about arms supplies to Ukraine and how to deal with Russia. China would benefit greatly from a split.
4
How is the West reacting to the situation?
China is walking on a dangerous tightrope in its plan to prolong the war. Reports from US intelligence agencies that China plans to supply arms to aggressor Russia have intensified rhetoric between the two blocs.
“China cannot go both ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. It cannot, on the one hand, make peace proposals and, on the other hand, fuel the fire that Russia has started,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (60) in mid-February. According to Reuters, consequences such as sanctions have already been threatened. According to four US officials, the US government is already seeking support from its partners.
5
What are the implications of the close ties between Russia and China for the West?
The West and China are still heavily interdependent. There is great fear that without China we will be in even greater trouble than without Russia. According to Eurostat data, China was the third largest destination for EU goods exports, accounting for 10 percent of the total. With a share of 22 percent in 2021, China will once again be Europe’s largest source of imports.
In the event of complete silence between China and the West, experts fear high inflation, complicated supply chains and a sharp fall in profitability – on both sides. According to the economist and China expert George Magnus (74), there is no turning back: a “change is coming in the globalized era”.
6
Does China still need the West?
Despite tensions, the US remains China’s most important export country, followed by the EU in third place. Despite the current situation, Russia has only just entered the top 10, according to World Bank data. Even if China now receives some support from Russia, a complete break with the West would have a major negative impact.
No wonder Xi launched a charm offensive against Europe at the People’s Congress – at the same time as the open threat against the US. Because China can pursue its own trade interests there with less geopolitical tension than with the US. Xi said China wants to work more closely with the European side “to maintain genuine multilateralism, mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation”.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
