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In the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, fierce fighting has been going on for weeks between Ukraine and Russia. According to Russian information, the soldiers of President Vladimir Putin (70) have completely surrounded the city. The notorious Wagner mercenaries in particular are said to have played a decisive role.
Now there are clear signs that Ukraine is preparing a withdrawal from Bakhmut – at least in part. According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine is probably preparing a tactical retreat. Accordingly, the soldiers would abandon all positions on the eastern side of the Bakhmutovka River, which bisects the city almost exactly in the middle. This is indicated by current satellite images.
According to the ISW, it remains unclear whether the Ukrainian forces will also give up positions west of the river. There are many indications that the Ukrainians are “striving for a gradual withdrawal to exhaust the Russian forces through continuous urban warfare,” the ISW writes. The result: Russia would have to engage in an arduous house-to-house fight – high casualties on the part of Putin’s army would result.
Disillusionment among military bloggers
Bachmut is already considered the “meat grinder” of war. Russia in particular has recorded high personnel losses in recent weeks. “A house-to-house fight in Bakhmut could further weaken the already exhausted Russian forces,” the current ISW report says. There can therefore be no question of a glorious victory for Putin.
The progress in Bakhmut has also disillusioned Russian military bloggers. According to Russian blogger Alexander Chodakowski, Bakhmut committed “great resources” to the Russian military. “The question remains whether Russia is suddenly faced with a counter-offensive that could overshadow the costly victory in Bakhmut.” In recent weeks, Russia has concentrated almost all of its forces on the battle for Bakhmut. “The question remains how we will deal with the Ukrainians if they suddenly attack us elsewhere.”
The conquest can take years
The once euphoric mood of the military bloggers has now given way to disillusionment. After months of exhaustion with heavy losses, the high expectations have disappeared. In the summer, military bloggers wrote that the Ukrainian front would collapse in a very short time. We are now far from that. “Nine months of extremely grueling, slow Russian advance in the Bakhmut region likely had a major impact on Russian bloggers’ assessments,” notes the ISW.
Yet Putin will hardly be able to live up to expectations. A conquest of the entire Donetsk region could take years. “Russian armed forces do not currently have the personnel and equipment necessary to conduct offensive operations on such a scale for years to come,” the report said. Russia will have to “mobilize significantly more personnel and fundamentally rebuild its military industry to support such operations”.
Even if Putin manages to win a victory in Bakhmut, his war will still be unsuccessful. The Russian army has so far failed to win a decisive victory in the Donetsk region. This will be a problem for Putin, the ISW writes: “This fact will increasingly anger ultra-nationalist pro-war lawyers in Russia.” They have great influence in the Kremlin – and are getting Putin into more and more trouble.
Source: Blick
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
