There is not much to talk about with Vladimir Putin these days. That seems to be the preliminary message of the Munich Security Conference, where hardly any other subject is as urgent as the war against Ukraine. Certainly also because a year earlier in the same place, a few days before the Russian attack, a lot seemed possible. There was still a glimmer of hope that Putin would be impressed by the unity of the international community, host Christoph Heusgen noted at the opening on Friday. He wasn’t and made tanks roll and missiles fly.
Who wouldn’t have sat down at the long table in the Kremlin to somehow prevent this? And the many phone calls. The shock was deep, but diplomacy did not seem dead even after the attack, whether the Ukrainian delegations were negotiating with representatives of Russia or in particular French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden who visited Moscow once again. times called.
Today the situation is different. Because it should be clear to everyone that this war will not be over soon. At least not through conversations that Putin is clearly not interested in. “The time is not right for a dialogue with Russia”, confirmed the French president in Munich. Macron had occasionally been irritated with somewhat strange ideas, such as that Russia also needs security guarantees and that Putin should not be humiliated. Now he stated that the goal was to enable Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive with even more military aid. This is the only way Russia can be brought to negotiations “on the terms of the Ukrainians”, only then can a credible peace come – in weeks, months, but also be “ready for continued conflict”.
“It’s not our arms supplies that are prolonging the war”
Helping more, faster and above all persevering, that is what the Western allies see as the need of the hour. And they are certainly right in their approach. Because Putin is playing time. The signal that everyone who supports Ukraine would like to send in Munich could be: in vain, we stick together, we have the strength, we will not be divided. But Russia is not only counting on a war of attrition in Ukraine itself – Western solidarity will also be blunted in the long run. Which, in fact, speaks for really ramping up aid to bring about a real turning point in the war, as Macron described it. And as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi once again urgently demanded via video transmission at the beginning of the conference – “because our lives depend on it”.
It is possible that the German Chancellor also acknowledged this in principle when he said: “The sooner President Putin realizes that he will not achieve his imperialist goal, the more likely the war will soon end and Russian troops will withdraw.” Scholz emphasized: “It is not our arms supplies that are prolonging the war.” The opposite is correct.
The only question that remains, despite all the demonstrative consensus that will be heard again and again this Saturday: is it enough? Scholz, for instance, might like to be able to push aside the image of the reluctant procrastinator, frozen for now in vague fear of escalation. Suddenly he is eager to be the forerunner of a main battle tank coalition in which Germany does not apply the brakes, but where the contributions of those who used to exert so much pressure are postponed. The chancellor warned that they ‘really have to deliver now’. That mainly went to Poland.
But it’s not about who is in the best position at the moment and can boast one of the main supporters in general, but really: will Ukraine get everything it needs? And now, at least very soon. The promise of “as long as necessary” is just as important, but will only become relevant tomorrow, when Ukraine can confront Russian aggression today.
And unlike Macron, Scholz does not say the word offensive. Instead, he announces that he wants to continue to maintain the “balance between the best possible support for Ukraine and avoiding an unwanted escalation”: “Provide swift action, cohesion before solo action”, carefully weigh the consequences, close alignment with partners – who started it with US President Biden often saw the same thing, about which the Chancellor was “happy and grateful”.
This means that the demand to “design our support from the start so that we can last for a long time” sounds like something else: Ukraine gets the bare minimum so as not to go down, but we don’t want to overindulge it. preparing for a victory so as not to provoke Putin. In this sense, arms deliveries generally do not prolong the war, but their limited scope and always slightly late timing rob them of effect. “It’s wise to be prepared for a long war,” Scholz said in an interview with CNN reporter Christiane Amanpour. Even Putin probably wouldn’t object to that.
The insistence continues
The acute difficulties of searching for operational tanks and grenades, the prospect of an end to the war in the distant future and everything in between also shaped the meeting of the so-called Weimar Triangle on Friday night. Scholz, Macron and Polish President Andrzej Duda wanted to revive the German-French-Polish dialogue format. It lay fallow for years and was not taken up again at a high level until February 2022.
Now the group of three emphasized their close cooperation, especially with regard to Ukraine. Even before the talks, Duda demanded that their support be increased to drive Russia out of the occupied territories. Macron was closer to him than Scholz, who felt under pressure again. “Sometimes you need a strong impulse to start movements,” said the Polish ambassador to Germany, Dariusz Pawłoś, in a recent interview. Who is pushing who is probably less important here than France, Germany and Poland pushing together even more.
This article was first published on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Here’s the original.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
