Shortly before the anniversary of the start of Russia’s offensive war against Ukraine, NATO’s Secretary General sounded the alarm: Jens Stoltenberg warned on Monday that the defense of the Ukrainian army against Russian troops was swallowing up huge amounts of ammunition. NATO countries’ ammunition stocks are dwindling and cannot keep up with demand. Ukraine is in danger of running out of ammunition in the Russian offensive that has just begun.
The statements of a Western diplomat also show the extent of the ammunition misery in the West. He told Reuters news agency: “If Europe had to fight against Russia, some countries would have used up their ammunition within days.” Supply is also at risk: those who order large-caliber ammunition today will have to wait two and a half years for delivery, says Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO defense ministers now want to tackle the ammunition problem. Ahead of a meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, Stoltenberg called on allies to ramp up production and stressed that NATO will assist Ukraine “for as long as it takes”.
But is the appeal too late? How much can the West currently supply? And does Ukraine have enough missiles to repel the Russian offensive that has just begun? The overview.
How problematic is the situation?
The Russian offensive war is pushing Ukraine’s ammunition depots and those of NATO supporters to their limits. Ukraine cannot provide for its own ammunition needs: massive ammunition has already been fired and Russia regularly destroys Ukrainian ammunition factories and depots. And in some cases the attacked country itself cannot produce ammunition for the supplied Western weapons.
According to estimates, the Ukrainian army alone fires between 3,000 and 5,000 artillery shells – every day. In comparison, according to US data, the Russian army even fires 20,000 artillery shells per day. In addition to artillery shells, Kiev needs ammunition for various models of tanks, anti-aircraft guns, rocket launchers and small arms. Ukraine’s needs are so great that they are pushing the ammunition stocks of 30 NATO countries to their limits.
According to the New York Times, citing Western government officials, only half of the roughly 90,000 artillery shells that Ukraine fires each month can be covered by current production in the US and Europe.
The events are very dynamic, defense expert Christian Mölling of the German Association for Foreign Relations (DGAP) told t-online. Ukraine must cut spending: if there is a lot of bombing, it must shoot back a corresponding amount, but also rescue where it can. The situation is constantly changing. Russia has been missing less lately, whether for tactical reasons or as a cost-cutting measure, but people don’t know, Mölling said.
What ammunition does Ukraine need the most?
Kiev always emphasizes that they need all kinds of weapon systems including the right ammunition. However, depending on the war situation, priorities change: for example, in the fall of 2022, Russia began systematically destroying civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. To protect Ukrainian cities against Russian missiles and kamikaze drones, the need for anti-aircraft systems and their ammunition has increased. For example, Germany sent the Iris-T air defense system, the Patriot missile defense system and the Gepard anti-aircraft tank to Kiev.
For the latter, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) has now announced a new supply of ammunition for the summer. A final agreement was reached with the Rheinmetall arms company to produce new 35 millimeter ammunition. According to the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, 300,000 rounds will be delivered to Ukraine from July – more than a year after the delivery of the first Gepard tanks.
However, in the current phase of the war of attrition, Ukraine’s main need is artillery ammunition. Although a new Russian offensive is just beginning in the Donbass, the war is trench warfare across much of the front: Ukrainian and Russian troops have dug in behind their respective lines and are firing grenades and rockets at each other from afar.
In addition: The ammunition must have the correct caliber. Not every bullet fits in every tube. For the supplied Western systems, such as the American M777 towed howitzer or the German PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer, Kiev needs artillery shells with a caliber of 155 millimeters.
Because the Ukrainian army in the past mainly used old Soviet howitzers that fired 152 millimeter projectiles, there are hardly any domestic ammunition factories for the weapons supplied from the West in 2022. That is why the US alone has sent about a million 155mm shells to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and Germany about 18,500 projectiles.
How can the lack of ammunition be explained?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine surprised many. For decades, European governments and their armaments industry in particular focused on peacetime. Arms stocks and production capacities were reduced and national defense was also neglected. And although the war in Russia has lasted about 12 months, politicians in many European countries have not substantially changed their armament policies.
The example of Germany shows how difficult it is for states to adapt to the new situation. Shortly after the outbreak of war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a huge special fund from the Bundeswehr, an additional 100 billion euros for the armed forces. But the money is not for ongoing ammunition production or spare parts, but for older projects that are finally being implemented to make the Bundeswehr more powerful.
But here too there is a problem. The director of the Federal Association of the German Security and Defense Industry, Hans Christoph Atzpodien, criticizes Deutschlandfunk (DLF) that the federal government has so far placed hardly any orders with industrial companies. But the armament companies depend on them: weapons of war may only be produced in Germany with an official order. If politicians now quickly order ammunition, weapons and equipment, the German arms industry can also be boosted considerably, says Atzpodien. Ultimately, Ukraine could also benefit from this.
Defense companies can make prepayments and pre-produce certain materials for rapid delivery after receipt of the order. “Screens for tanks, for example, are allowed”, but not directly deployable weapons of war, says defense expert Christian Mölling. Companies are already gone in advance, says lobby representative Atzpodien to DLF, but ‘infinite’ is not possible.
What solutions are there?
There are several options: according to military expert Mölling, Ukraine’s allies can now increase their own ammunition production or buy ammunition on the world market. Russia has a harder time, because it has lost partners in the war of aggression. “But it is also a political decision,” says Mölling. States must decide how much of their own supplies to give up and how much to keep for their own safety.
The United States is also taking other paths: The Pentagon recently tapped a hitherto little-known munitions depot in Israel, the New York Times reported in January. The ammunition was actually intended to be used in possible conflicts in the Middle East, the paper said. About half of the approximately 300,000 artillery shells destined for Ukraine have already been delivered there. Washington also diverted ammunition from a US depot in South Korea. However, U.S. officials warn that U.S. foreign depots will eventually run out.
In Germany, given the desolate state of the Bundeswehr, armaments lobbyists are demanding significantly more money than the special fund that has been decided upon. And the head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, told t-online: “The 100 billion euros is not enough. We have to understand that our security is expensive.”
According to information from Spiegel, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is also considering increasing the defense budget by ten billion euros. The magazine reports that it must remain at a total volume of 60 billion euros in the coming years. Otherwise, the modernization of the Bundeswehr announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz would not be possible, according to the argumentation within the government.
However, the question is whether that will be enough not only to adequately equip the Bundeswehr, but also to supply Ukraine with ammunition.
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
