4 clues why the Russian offensive does not go ahead Vladimir Putin’s butcher wants to enter politics

Two Russian army armored vehicles approach a forest path. After a moment’s hesitation, the infantry fighting vehicle rushes forward and hits a mine. The cloud of the blast has barely cleared when the main battle tank tries it too – amazingly in exactly the same place – with the same result.

Said scene as a GIF

The scene was recorded by a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone near Wuhledar. The video of it is now doing the rounds on social media. They all show the same thing: puzzling and hopeless offensive efforts of the Russian army. The attempt to take the town would have cost Russia an entire battalion, including a command staff and more than 30 armored vehicles.

Is this the start of the Russian winter offensive announced by countless experts with up to 2,000 tanks and 300,000 infantry?

Wrong, says Philip P. O’Brien. The announced winter offensive is pure alarmism. It will never happen that way. O’Brien is a historian and professor of war studies at St Andrews University in Scotland. In an essay worth reading, he substantiates his statement on the basis of four indicators:

There is no trace of the units involved

A year ago, as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine, a catalog of satellite images of troop concentrations on the border circulated. The preparations for the war could be followed almost live. Such withdrawals of the supposedly up to 2,000 tanks and 300,000 soldiers who would be ready for the offensive do not exist. Not even a trace of it.

There is also discussion about whether Russia still has these quantities of war material. Recently, US sources reported that Russia may have lost half of its entire tank arsenal in Ukraine.

Russia has supply problems

An army must be supplied – with ammunition, with fuel, with food, with fresh troops. Russia has chronic problems with this. This was impressively demonstrated in the failed convoy to Kiev – and now conditions have become even more difficult.

The Ukrainian army has been able to rely on the extremely accurate HIMARS for several months now. Barely operational, she destroyed several Russian ammunition depots. Russia had to react and moved its main camps 100 kilometers behind the front – out of reach of the HIMARS.

However, the great distance to the front means that the invaders have difficulty supplying their own troops. Truck deliveries are unreliable, videos are circulating of desperate Wagner mercenaries complaining about a lack of ammunition in positions near Bachmut.

There is no indication that Russia can eliminate these weaknesses and even successfully provide a much larger army. Launching a large-scale attack under these circumstances is an illusion, according to O’Brien.

Russia is out

A successful attack occurs simultaneously with ground and air units from different positions. Since the beginning of the war, Russia still owes evidence that it could carry out such a coordinated maneuver. The current attack attempts, as explained in the introduction, are indications of how haphazard the Russian approach is. The attacks seem uncoordinated, thoughtless and inhumane to their own soldiers. Russia also has no air sovereignty over Ukraine.

The crushed troops at Wuhledar were not untrained convicts, but elite units of the 40th and 155th Marines. Not only Western observers rub their eyes in bewilderment. Igor Girkin, the Russian nationalist, sharply criticizes his own military leadership on Telegram: “Only absolute fools keep attacking from the front,” he analyzes in frustration. In fact, the pro-war offensive believes the Wuhledar offensive was the last of its kind. Russia can’t anymore.

Ukraine cannot be surprised

Ukraine itself has fueled the theory of the major offensive of recent weeks: “We can see how many troops are waiting for Russia at the border,” Defense Minister Resnikov announced a few days ago – just as President Zelenskyj was on tour of Europe France and England are asking for modern fighter planes. The acute threat situation served as a basis for negotiations.

The first part of Reznikov’s statement is certainly correct: “We see…” The Ukrainian army command has access to images from more than 200 commercial US satellites. This also includes radar satellites, which can provide information at any time of the day and in any weather. The EU also sends classified photographic material to Kiev.

So the defenders know quite well where and how many Russian troops are standing by – and can react accordingly.

However, O’Brien does not want to shout about Ukraine’s victory. He thinks Ukraine is also in trouble. The biggest is the lack of ammunition.