Espionage expert warns: “Russian steamroller can now roll over Ukraine” Blinken calls Chinese balloon part of surveillance program

Your school has a martial name. Do you train spies and secret agents?
Christian Harbulot: Not only that, the school is generally committed to getting information from the players in the world’s economic confrontation. But it’s true, since September last year we have been offering an intelligence diploma for the first time.

Was this influenced by the war in Ukraine, which had already lasted six months?
Partly because this war demonstrates the need for a holistic approach – not just military, but with issues around open source governance, intelligence gathering, or communications.

The Ukrainians receive valuable information through the American and British intelligence services. Could that be decisive for the war?
This lead served the Ukrainians well in the first phase of the war: they thwarted the Russian lightning attack on Kiev. The question is, however, whether Anglo-Saxon intelligence assistance will be as effective in the second phase of the war, as a new Russian steamroller rolls over Ukraine. However amateurish the Russians acted in the beginning, they have proven in history that they are capable of learning from their mistakes, even during the ongoing war. So in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904 or in the Second World War.

The Russians also have a long tradition of disinformation and propaganda.
Putin is waging a hybrid war – military against Ukraine, propaganda against the West. Moscow is currently suggesting through all channels that the Americans are benefiting economically from the war, while Europe is weakening. That should divide the West. And apparently the West has no answer.

Even about Russian war crimes, the democratic world is not launching a sustainable and international information campaign. These files are occupied and documented. I don’t understand something: Why isn’t the West exploiting Putin’s war crimes? Because eventually these atrocities become a non-event or at least questioned for many Earthlings. That only serves Russian interests.

Putin flags are even being waved in Africa, South America and Asia today.
This is also the fault of the Americans. Their media, intelligence services and opinion formers limit themselves to the military aspect in Ukraine. Where they are directly attacked by Russian disinformation, they counter insufficiently.

In the Sahel, too, public opinion is turning to Russia, even to its Wagner mercenaries. Does Paris have nothing to be against?
I doubt our military leaders have understood what it means to wage a hybrid war. Most general staffs in Western countries limit themselves to their classic military tasks. They do not control counter propaganda or cyber attacks. France will lose countries like Mali and Burkina Faso. That’s serious.

After all, France has closed down Russian TV channels such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik.
The main consequence of these bans was that Russian disinformation shifted even more to social media. Hardly anyone gives countermeasures. There is a devastating doctrine in Paris that an information and propaganda war can only be defensive. You can only win such missions if they are carried out offensively.

The blowing up of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was a major problem in both the West and Russia. How do you rate this incident?
This is doubly interesting – in terms of consequences and authorship. It is still unknown, although it is easy to name the beneficiaries and those who suffer.

When were there?
The Germans and the Russians were certainly disadvantaged by this sabotage. It also seems logical that the Americans would benefit more from it.

Weren’t the German secret services blind to the fact that Moscow eventually used the energy supplies as a weapon?
I would speak less of blindness than of opportunism. For years, the German economy has benefited from very interesting gas prices. On the other hand, Berlin turned a blind eye to the geopolitical aspects, namely the balance of power between Russians and Germans.

Is the Russian economy suffering from Western pressure and sanctions?
This is a key question. By buying less Russian gas, the West will undoubtedly weaken Putin’s regime. But Moscow is finding new buyers in Asia, easing Western pressure. Above all, the West is overlooking the essential: Russia’s industrial-military sector, the main instrument of Russian imperialism, maintains its strength. Even under Putin. He fundamentally reformed his country’s military and armaments sector. To the American school, Russia is a derelict industrial country with a weak gross domestic product. But that’s only half the truth in this war. The industrial-military complex remains solid, thanks in no small part to years of spying, even looting, on Western technologies.

plunder you say?
Yes indeed. Little is known in the West about the extent of this industrial espionage and is likely to continue. Paris only woke up once when the French secret service DST exposed a Soviet agent in the so-called farewell affair and found tens of thousands of sensitive documents about him. Apart from such exceptional cases, the West does not even realize how massively its military industry has been looted.

What about the Russian secret service, Putin’s former employer, today?
The domestic secret service, now the FSB, is as active and offensive as the KGB used to be, mainly in the field of political policing. The foreign secret service SVR is also following in the footsteps of the KGB.

Can the sanctions influence the course of the war?
As long as we remain at the level of a classic war, these sanctions make little sense. It is different when advanced technologies, such as in the field of missiles, have to be used. There the Russian army has loopholes. At the moment, however, it is the mass that counts. The Russians mobilize soldiers and old equipment and accept huge losses. The sanctions cannot prevent that.

What should the West do?
First of all, Europeans must coordinate internally and agree on creative solutions. In addition, they should be very flexible and manoeuvrable. I’m afraid that cumbersome bodies like NATO or the Franco-German consultation will not help. They think too traditionally and have not recognized the importance of communication.

More specifically, should the West form a hacker army for cyberwar?
I don’t want to go into detail about the methods, our Russian friends listen or read along. But what I can say is that we need people in Germany, France or Italy who are willing to ‘think’ a hybrid war. They don’t necessarily have to be Americans and British; they do not have the same goals and interests.

What’s the story in your industry about China’s spy balloon?
This is primarily a political thing. The Americans could not make this aircraft fly properly, that would have been a sign of weakness. Perhaps the Chinese wanted to test the US response. Beijing’s communications, however, were less than convincing.