They are images of war, made in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo: hundreds of paramilitaries and policemen walking in a goose step. They carry submachine guns in their hands, next to them armored cars drive through the eastern part of the city.
What at first glance seems like an ordinary military parade contains political explosives: with the march, the men celebrate the founding day of the so-called Republic of Srpska in 1992 – even though the Bosnian constitutional court had previously banned the march.
Those who marched there in front of the Serbian foreign minister on January 9 belong to the Serbian entity in Bosnia. Your event is a maximum provocation to the Bosnian government as it celebrates a day considered to be the trigger for the Bosnian War, on which mainly Serbs under their leader Radovan Karadžić committed numerous massacres of Bosnian Muslims.
The day and the march show that it is raging in the Balkans. Again. Serbia is igniting in the region – apparently gaining support from Moscow. In the end, one person in particular is benefiting from the turmoil: Vladimir Putin.
The Western Balkans has been a politically extremely difficult region for many years. Serbia is not only causing unrest in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in Kosovo.
The situation there almost escalated in late December when citizens of Serb origin rose up against the state and set up roadblocks – with the friendly support of the Serbian government. This collected military equipment near the neighboring country, sent the army chief to the border and warned of an “armed conflict”.
This is not just a conflict between two hostile neighbors. It seems rather that the EU accession candidate Serbia – with the support of Moscow – is currently consciously leaning on provocation in the Balkans.
«Head in Brussels, heart in Moscow»
That wouldn’t be surprising. Serbia has been pursuing a swing policy between the European Union and Russia, not only since the Russian attack on Ukraine. On the one hand, the country is a candidate for EU membership, the EU is its main trading partner and Serbia is voting at the United Nations to condemn Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
On the other hand, Serbia is ideologically much closer to the Kremlin and has close economic ties. For example, President Alexander Vučić refused to participate in the sanctions against Russia – much to the anger of the EU.
“Vučić is trying to cooperate with the major power blocs in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. the West, China and Russia, thereby giving his country an interest that it actually has neither politically nor economically,” said Oliver Jens Schmitt, historian of Eastern Europe. Europe at the University of Vienna and Director of Balkan Research at the Austrian Academy of Sciences.
A Serb and an Albanian fight for justice
In this context, the expert also sees the most recent provocations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Kosovo, which he describes as “interfering maneuvers”. “Vučić is clearly reversing the spiral of escalation,” says Schmitt. He makes specific use of the Serb population in neighboring countries, such as recently in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. “The majority of this diaspora is a deadly element because it supports Serbian ultra-nationalism, including through violence, as riots in Vienna have repeatedly shown.”
Since the collapse of Yugoslavia, there have been many smaller states with strong nationalist tendencies in the Balkans – this is especially strong in Serbia. And it is the Serbian nationalists who passionately hate the EU and NATO. They honor Vladimir Putin, who sometimes enjoys heroic status in Serbia.
In the capital Belgrade, for example, there is graffiti of Vladimir Putin. Cafes are named after him, a brandy, a church, even an entire village bears the name of the Russian president. According to surveys, 80 percent of Serbs are pro-Russian and nearly half of the population support Russia’s war in Ukraine – and the trend continues. If you ask people in Serbia how they feel about Russia and the EU, you often get the answer: “Our heads are in Brussels, but our hearts are in Moscow.”
This is closely related to the Serbian media, which mainly report close to the Kremlin. The day after the attack, a newspaper headline read: “Russian coup in response to NATO threats.” It is a reflection of the policies of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who gradually aligned the media.
Russia lures Serbia with cheap raw materials
Putin is using his popularity in Serbia to expand his influence in the Balkan country. Russia sells cheap raw materials to Belgrade and militarily arms the Serbian army. The country’s oil industry is more or less Russian-owned, and Serbia’s largest gas storage facility, Banatski Dvor, is majority owned by Russia’s state-owned company Gazprom.
In the south of Serbia, Russia has also built a “Centre for Disaster Relief”, as it is officially called. Western governments, however, assume that it is an espionage center and the core of a future Russian military base.
This cooperation has advantages for both countries, says Schmitt. “Serbia wants to take advantage of Russian military technology and Russia can build a military base in the Western Balkans – only about 100 kilometers as the crow flies from the US base Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo.” However, maintaining a permanent military presence in the current crisis will not be easy for Russia. Russian planes are not allowed to fly over EU territory, which prevented Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov from visiting Serbia in June 2022 as planned.
A gas deal struck in the summer, when Russian atrocities in Ukraine were long known, caused a sensation. Russia offered Serbia a very friendly price, which, according to Serbian sources, was a third of what other European states paid at the time.
What promises Serbia made to Russia in return – unclear. And yet, the words of Serbian Interior Minister Aleksander Vulin after the deal shed light on his country’s attitude: “The agreement (…) is proof of how much Serbia’s decision not to participate in the anti -Russian hysteria is respected”, and added : Do not accept orders from the West.
“Russia is trying everywhere to weaken the EU”
It is also a fact that Serbia’s importance to Russia has probably increased since the attack on Ukraine. Serbia’s most recent provocations against neighboring countries also play into Putin’s hands. “Russia is trying to weaken the EU wherever possible,” says Balkan expert Schmitt. “And Serbia’s disruptive maneuvers are spot on.”
The closeness of the ties between Russia and Serbia is also reflected in the Kosovo policy. To this day, Serbia considers the neighboring state a breakaway province and the Russian leadership does not recognize the country’s sovereignty either.
This close relationship goes back a long way: while Russia supplied Serbia with weapons during the Kosovo war, NATO bombed Belgrade from 1999 – after human rights violations and the threat of ethnic cleansing by the Serbian army became known.
After the Yugoslav war, not only did mutual distrust arose in the Balkans, but a number of fragile states also emerged – Bosnia is no exception. The leadership of the Serbian entity has long been pushing for secession and wants to create a “Greater Serbia”. The representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, assessed the illegal parade in the ARD “Tagesschau” as a “creeping disintegration of the state”.
The entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina with their respective largest ethnic groups:
Russia and Serbia benefit from escalation
Fears also arose around the recent escalation between Serbia and Kosovo that another war could break out. But that seems unlikely given Serbia’s military capabilities. The small army has only 28,000 active soldiers and 50,000 reservists.
It is mainly equipped with tanks and fighter planes that were still manufactured in the former Yugoslavia or in the former Soviet Union. In Kosovo, on the other hand, the US military has a base that belongs to the NATO-led KFOR mission, which is tasked with keeping peace in the country.
And yet the many small escalations are useful for Serbia and Russia. Schmitt: “This also increases attention in the West. And that is the political capital of Vučić.” And the Russian president can also use the ongoing political instability in the Balkans to destabilize the EU.
“A point has been reached where the EU simply cannot accept that a small regional state continues to commit disruptive maneuvers that can cause significant damage,” says Balkans expert Schmitt. He complains that there is still a widespread belief in the EU that Serbia is the key to solving the problems in the Western Balkans. “This is mainly at the expense of states that were already victims of Serb aggression in the 1990s.”
A moment during the illegal parade in Bosnia and Herzegovina showed how much Serbia is putting itself in the spotlight. Milorad Dodik, President of the Republic of Srpska, solemnly conferred the highest honors on Putin in his absence. For Schmitt it is clear: “Without Belgrade’s permission, nothing like this will happen.”
(t online)
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
