This is how Putin’s new commander wants to defeat Ukraine

Disappointment on the war front prompted the Kremlin to change the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. Valery Gerasimov (67) replaces Sergey Surovikin (56), who was relieved of his duties after only three months.

Surovikin, who is notorious for his attacks on civilian facilities in Syria and is therefore known as “General Armageddon”, had increasingly fired on Ukraine with missiles and drones.

Under him, attacks on power stations, oil and gas storage facilities and other critical infrastructure became an integral part of Russian warfare. But the tactic didn’t work. On the contrary: under him the Russian army had to take enormous losses.

Awarded as a hero

Now Gerasimov should fix it. The army also enjoys the respect of its enemies: the army chief of Ukraine, Valeri Saluschny (49), recently said in an interview with the “Economist” that he grew up with Russian military doctrine and studied Gerasimov’s publications: “I read everything what he wrote. He’s one of the smartest.”

What deadly strategy will Putin’s new commander in Ukraine choose?

The 67-year-old is considered the head of hybrid warfare, the so-called “Gerassimov Doctrine”. Military objectives must be achieved in conjunction with other measures such as cyber-attacks, information technology, diplomatic, economic and cultural means. An important tool: fake news.

Besides Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (67), Gerasimov is the man who planned the invasion of Ukraine. In recent years, he was also responsible for organizing the army’s mission in Syria, for which he received the title of “Hero of the Russian Federation”.

He needs a quick success report

At the top of Gerasimov’s to-do list should be the complete capture of Soledar and Bakhmut so that he can spread the word of success in Russia and motivate the soldiers. His ultimate goal is probably the capture of the capital Kiev and the occupation of all of Ukraine. At least, that was what he had been aiming for when planning the war.

The Institute for War Studies (ISW) gives Gerasimov little chance. “It is highly unlikely that Gerasimov will be able to live up to Putin’s unrealistic expectations of his performance,” the expert report said. The reason for this is that the chain of command is becoming increasingly chaotic due to misplanning.

Survived thanks to the US

Gerasimov quickly climbed the career ladder in the Red Army and in 2012 was appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defense Minister by President Vladimir Putin (70).

He is said to have been Commander General in the Battle of Ilovaisk in 2014. During days of fighting in Donetsk Oblast, Russian and pro-Russian militants surrounded Ukrainian soldiers. More than 1,000 Ukrainians were killed.

In April, Gerasimov almost fell victim to a Ukrainian attack. The Ukrainians got wind of a planned visit to the front, but were stopped by the US in an assassination attempt to prevent the situation from escalating further.

However, Ukrainian preparations were already underway and dozens of Russian soldiers were killed in the attack. Contrary to initial belief, Gerasimov was not among them.