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He was deployed to “increase the effectiveness of the military operation in Ukraine,” as the Kremlin officially explains: Valeri Gerasimov, 67, now commands the Russian army in the fighting in the neighboring country. This means that one of the leading military figures in Russia is moving to what is currently the most important army post, someone who has known and worked his way up in the structures of the armed forces for decades.

Kremlin chief Putin has thus appointed a longtime confidant amid the ongoing heavy fighting in Ukraine. Russia is currently fighting over the cities of Soledar and Bakhmut, especially in the east, but the military is also under pressure in the Kharkiv region in the northeast.

Replace after three months

Gerasimov replaces his predecessor Sergey Surovikin, who was in office for only three months. Therefore, the move is unofficially seen as an act of desperation. In addition, Gerasimov is now the third most senior military officer in Russia: he is the most senior officer in the army after President Putin himself, the commander-in-chief of the army and defense minister Shoigu.

The fact that such an important person has to compete in Ukraine, according to observers, shows that the situation is more than tense. But who is Valery Gerasimov? And why did his predecessor Surovikin have to leave so suddenly?

Surovikin was demoted to the 67-year-old’s deputy position. Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin was apparently extremely dissatisfied with him. Among other things, Surovikin had ordered the Russian withdrawal from Kherson shortly after Putin annexed the southern Ukrainian region. It is possible that Surovikin is also being used as a scapegoat and has now felt it without question.

Strong rise of the Russian army

In Gerasimov there is now a man at the head of the army who has devoted his entire professional career to the army. In his hometown of Kazan, a city of over a million inhabitants on the Volga, some 700 kilometers from Moscow, he began his career at military school and worked his way up from there.

He was a platoon commander, company commander, commander and involved in operations in Poland and the North Caucasus. From 2015 he was also responsible for the Russian mission in Syria. For this, Putin awarded him the title “Hero of the Russian Federation”. In 2012, he became Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, making him the third most important man in the military, a role he will continue to hold.

In addition to Shoigu and Putin, Gerasimov has access to the nuclear case. He is also a member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which also includes representatives of Putin’s inner circle.

representatives of the old guard

Observers place Gerasimov in the ranks of the old military guard, as does Defense Minister Shoigu. Facing them are the “young radicals”, such as the head of the mercenary group “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who openly boast of their brutal handling of the war. They have repeatedly criticized Gerasimov for his perceived too lax warfare.

Gerasimov stands for hybrid warfare. He is considered their mastermind and inventor of a doctrine named after him, according to which a war should be waged not only militarily, but also economically, politically and medially. For example with cyber attacks or targeted false reports.

This strategy can be observed in the offensive war in Ukraine. For example, the propaganda machine in Russia has been greatly strengthened and tirelessly produces false reports. Theories are put forward on state-controlled television that “the West” wants to attack Russia and that Ukraine is only “defending”. The Kremlin also provides false information about its own victims and those of Ukraine, which are also regularly refuted by independent organizations.

And yet the Russian military is doing badly, yet the man of hybrid warfare is now being brought forward. According to experts, this also reinforces the impression that Putin is acting out of necessity.

Observer: Appointment seems desperation

Then, in May last year, rumors spread that Gerasimov had been wounded in Ukraine while visiting troops in the east of the country. Actually, the visit was meant to motivate the soldiers. But the fact that such a senior military decision-maker was exposed to the risk of a possible bombing raid was considered “shameful” by analysts.

The timing of the appointment is also irritating, writes the German-Russian journalist Maxim Kireev. In the beginning it would have been “a logical step”, he writes on Twitter, “today it seems desperation.” Criticism and ridicule also come from Russia itself.

‘They will soon call the war war’

Bloggers write that the constant transfers indicate that things are not going “according to plan”, as is always said. The appointment of Gerasimov and the demotion of Surovikin indicated that Putin had panicked and based his decisions on who last “whispered” something in his head.

Others see an escalation in warfare: the fact that the head of the entire army in Ukraine is now responsible could soon mean that there will no longer be just a “special operation”, as the war in Russia is officially called. Ivan Zhdanov of the Russian anti-corruption foundation of opposition politician Alexei Navalny is convinced on Twitter: “This means that soon they will call the war a war.”