What role does Putin play?

Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are rising. Fire broke out again on Sunday after Kosovo troops tried to dismantle a barricade set up by Serbs. Will the next powder keg explode in Eastern Europe?

What is the origin of the conflict?

German Balkans expert Konrad Clewing of the Leibniz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Studies summed it up in a nutshell: “Serbia denies the existence of the state of Kosovo.” Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but is still considered a breakaway territory by Belgrade to this day. Belgrade encourages the Serb minority in northern Kosovo in their efforts to defy Pristina’s authority.

The backdrop to the latest tensions were plans by the government in Pristina to hold local elections in Serb-majority areas on December 18. The main Serbian party immediately announced its boycott, and as the election authorities were about to start preparations, shootings and explosions broke out.

What do the heads of government say?

The prime ministers of the two sides in the conflict fire sharply at the other side, if only verbally.

Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti chose clear words: “The President and Prime Minister of Serbia threatened military aggression and called on the Serbian army to return to our territory. We are not seeking conflict, but dialogue and peace. But let me be clear: the Republic of Kosovo will defend itself – with all its strength and determination.”

How do Switzerland and the EU react?

Until now, like the EU, the focus has been on words. The Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) has announced on Twitter that Switzerland is concerned about the increasing tensions and the erection of barricades. Both sides have been urged to take immediate action to de-escalate the situation.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell strongly condemned the attacks. All parties must avoid any “escalation” and ensure peace, Borrell explained on Twitter. He called on Kosovo Serbs to lift the blockades “immediately”.

“The West is not resolute enough against Serbia,” criticizes Eastern Europe expert Clewing. This is because some European states would not recognize Kosovo’s independence either. European countries that have not yet recognized Kosovo are Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Spain.

How likely is a further escalation to war?

“I think an invasion is unlikely,” explains Clewing. “Because then Serbia would have to mess with NATO-led KFOR.” KFOR is the name given to the multinational peacekeeping force established after the end of the Kosovo War and led by NATO.

Instead, according to Clewing, Serbia will continue the conflict mainly at the secret service level. In the tensions of the past few days, he sees at most a threatening gesture from Serbia.

What does the escalation mean for the Swiss soldiers stationed in Kosovo?

Currently 195 Swiss men and women are deployed in the Kosovo Force (KFOR) Swisscoy.

When asked by Blick, the Swissint Competence Center in Stans NW said tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are not currently bringing about change for Swiss soldiers on the ground.

What role does the Russian invasion of Ukraine play?

The Kremlin regularly makes explosives in the Balkans. “Putin has been trying to torpedo the stabilization of the region for years,” Daniel Bochsler, 43, a professor of politics at the Central European University (CEU) in Vienna and at the University of Belgrade, told Blick in the spring. Putin specifically supports nationalists, for example Milorad Dodik (63) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In Serbia, the Kremlin makes clever use of the EU-Russia government’s both/and policy.

In August, nationalist politician Wladimir Dukanovic of the ruling SNS party tweeted that Serbia was being forced to “denazify” the Balkans. A story that can also be found in the Russian war propaganda about the offensive war in Ukraine. Dukanovic later came back claiming he was just “joking”.

“Russia will continue to assist Belgrade in defending its legitimate national interests with regard to Kosovo,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, 46.

The appointment of the pro-Russian nationalist Aleksander Vulin (50) as head of the secret service at the beginning of December also testified to the strong solidarity between Serbia and Russia. The Russian embassy in Belgrade supports the Serbian demands, “radical as they are,” explains Konrad Clewing.

According to the Eastern European researcher, this is purely political support. It is very unlikely that Serbia will receive any military support from Russia.

The regained self-confidence of the Serbian population in North Kosovo and the moral support of Russia are unlikely to change the initial situation. According to the expert, there is a good chance that Serbia will not enter into an open confrontation with KFOR – and therefore with NATO.

How could the conflict be defused again?

Part open, part hidden in northern Kosovo, Serbia could further undermine the independence of its neighbour. Conversely, it will continue to be difficult for Kosovo to build its institutions against the will of the people of Serb origin. Both would only exacerbate the situation.

Konrad Clewing therefore argues for a European solution. “The Eulex police and KFOR, in consultation with the government in Pristina, must largely assume their responsibilities in the conflict area.”