Hundreds of thousands feared dead in China

Hospitals are full in many places. In Beijing, the crematoria can no longer keep up with the cremation of the dead. According to estimates, hundreds of thousands of deaths are expected. But the government would rather only speak of an innocent “corona cold”.

The leap is huge: the infected had to go to the hospital at the beginning of December, in several large cities they are now even allowed to go back to work. The only requirement is that they show no or only mild symptoms. This happened in Guiyang in southwest China, where such a call went out to employees of supermarkets, medical facilities, delivery services and government agencies to return to work. The party newspaper “Global Times” spoke of a “better balance between epidemic prevention and social and economic development”.

After nearly three years of lockdowns, enforced quarantines, mass testing and contact tracing, the world’s most populous country suddenly lifted its strict zero-tolerance policy on December 7. The reason for the turnaround was that the infections with the new Omicron variants were no longer as serious. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) saw the main reason as the fact that the situation had gotten out of hand due to the many protests and the tough measures could no longer be sustained.

The turnaround left hospitals unprepared because until then there was “no strategy” for easing, as one European health expert described. The vaccination campaign had not progressed far enough. Many of the 260 million over-60s are insufficiently protected: only 70 percent of the over-60s and 40 percent of the over-80s have received a repeat injection. Modern foreign vaccines are not approved for political reasons. For many Chinese, it has been a long time since the last vaccination, so the disease hits them hard.

Instead of expanding hospitals and creating more intensive care beds, quarantine camps for tens of thousands of people had been built. There were also no stocks of medicines. Fever and cold medicines or rapid tests were sold out immediately after the easing. Even after two weeks, there are still no supplies: “We Chinese are too many,” explains a pharmacist of her empty shelves.

There are no longer any official figures on the contamination situation, but rough estimates alone suggest that more than half of Beijing’s 21 million people are sick. Many restaurants, businesses, shops and banks are closed. First weeks of lockdown, now sick employees: Many shops and restaurants have not survived economically, as witnessed by the glued window fronts in shopping centers.

The Chinese leadership has long touted its zero-Covid strategy as a sign of the communist system’s systemic superiority over Western societies. People were urgently warned about the dangers of the coronavirus and the resulting damage. But now that the measures are no longer effective and the price for the second largest economy is rising, the risk and severity of the disease is downplayed with similar vehemence and previous policies are defended as “just right”.

State propaganda never tires of saying that the turnaround, or rather “optimization”, as it is euphemistically called, came “at the right time” – regardless of the cold winter season. The pandemic is now “manageable”, it is claimed. “A return to full normalcy can be expected in the spring,” the China Daily wants to give hope.

Before that, however, three more corona waves roll through the country, as experts predict. The first will hit urban areas in mid-January. The second will follow in mid-February, when hundreds of millions of people will traditionally travel to their native villages for Chinese New Year celebrations on January 22. With the return of travelers, the third wave of infection can be expected in mid-March. Eventually, 80 to 90 percent of China’s 1.4 billion will become infected, it is predicted.

Even if the disease with omicron is no longer so serious, China is at risk of between a few hundred thousand and almost a million deaths, according to various studies. The amount depends on how quickly boosters are vaccinated, medication is used for treatment, how much mask is worn or further public and social health measures are taken.

Beijing crematoriums have long waiting times these days. “We have been overloaded with work since the Covid opening,” an employee of the cremation facility in Dongjiao tells the Wall Street Journal. “Now it’s 24 hours a day. We can’t keep up.” However, many Covid victims are not counted at all in the statistics because the cause of death is based on previous illnesses. According to a very narrow, new definition, only those who have died of pneumonia or respiratory failure after an infection count as corona deaths.

(SDA)