Russia expert: Replace Putin by 2024 Fire destroys kindergarten building in Winterthur

It is now 300 days since Russian President Putin launched the war of aggression against Ukraine. Is his position of power in Russia secure?

Ulrich Schmid: Putin has completely misjudged himself. He overestimated the effectiveness of his own army, underestimated the resistance spirit of the Ukrainians and was completely mistaken in his ideological assessment that the Russians are welcomed as liberators by a large part of the Ukrainian population.

What does that mean for him as chairman?

Putin has long been regarded as the guarantor of political and economic stability in Russia. That collapsed on February 24. With his insane decision to go to war, he redistributed the cards in power poker. The other players now have to think carefully about who they will bet on in the future.

However, support for Putin has not declined significantly, either among the population or among the elite.

The much-cited surveys should be treated with caution. Only five percent of those surveyed are willing to provide any information. A clear majority of the Russian population is against the war. Among the elites, one can speak of a “Party of February 23”. These are not reform-minded people, they are profiteers from the system. They know there is no way back to the status quo ante, but they want things to normalize as soon as possible. For her, on February 23, everything was fine with the world. They had their privileges, their foreign bank accounts, their yachts, they could travel freely, their children could study abroad undisturbed. And in this comfortable situation, Putin unleashes a senseless war.

Who belongs to these circles?

On the one hand there are oligarchs and on the other so-called liberal insiders, such as Prime Minister Mishustin, Trade Minister Manturov and Moscow Mayor Sobyanin. All are technocrats and loyal followers of Putin. But all three have hardly spoken publicly about the war, so as not to jeopardize their political acceptance at home and abroad. They see the war as something against the interests of Russia and the Russian people.

Do you see serious efforts suggesting a change of power is imminent?

Looks like a back door exit is being worked on. This solution should save face for both Putin and those organizing the aftermath. Putin’s successor must fulfill three conditions: he represents the dominant national-conservative ideology, he guarantees the privileges of the power elite and he has the ability to modernize the existing system.

Should Putin be replaced – when could this happen?

It won’t be fast. If you were to complete the replacement now, you would have the impression that you are pulling the emergency brake in a difficult military situation. Unless there is a major military victory within a year – which is not to be expected – I think the replacement will take place in 2023 or at the latest in the presidential election in March 2024.

Putin has tuned the power system to himself. It cannot simply be replaced.

This is a problem with any personalized dictatorship. When the ruler gets old, it is very difficult to find someone who has the authority that the dictator had and who is loyal enough to the system. But not everything has remained the same in the power structure since February 24. It’s brewing behind the scenes. This is reflected in the power struggle between the army and the various secret services. That is why there are staged television appearances.

If Putin is against the replacement, isn’t there a risk of an escalation of the war against Ukraine? Could Putin Use Nuclear Weapons?

You raise the question of whether Putin may have lost his mind. I do not believe that. He always follows the logic of the Secret Service. Putin feels that power is fragile. Putin would only dare to escalate if it would benefit him. He thinks in terms of means and ends. Right now, he’s using the threat of escalation as a weapon. As part of the 2020 constitutional review, Putin passed a law guaranteeing him and his family personal immunity beyond the time of his presidency. This shows that he is not driven by a suicidal logic.

What role do you see for Putin once he is no longer president?

In recent years he has been intensively involved in creating opportunities for himself. He can sit as a senator in the Federation Council, he can preside over the State Council, which received constitutional status in 2020. Putin could also become president of the state union of Belarus and Russia. So he would move to a less exposed position that matches his current interests. In recent years he has hardly cared about economic policy or domestic politics; he cares about the big contours and he wants to secure his place in history.

In the West, there are sometimes hints of hope that someone seeking reconciliation with the West could follow Putin. Is that an illusion?

I do not think that reconciliation with the West can be achieved in the foreseeable future. Not only in Ukraine, but also in the West, there is a conviction: the war is not over when Russia says: “We will not shoot anymore.” It calls for an international war crimes tribunal and also demands reparations. A successor to Putin could not simply accept that.

Putin has made it his life’s work to increase Russia’s influence. Can such a president be pushed into retirement? Does he have a position as greeting Augustus? On the other hand, if he continues to exercise power, his successor will hardly accept it.

We already had this situation between 2008 and 2012: there was an informal agreement between President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin.

Putin was in control.

That’s correct. But a smooth exit for Putin could work just as well: he steps back, occupying a largely representative position, but still exerting some influence on all important issues. Putin’s authority is cracked. The expectation in the power elite is that you need someone like Putin minus war. Someone who takes a conservative course, has the necessary assertiveness, but does not bring Russia into a military-political deadlock.

How should the successor take Russia out of the precarious situation in which Putin has led the country? How should he operate from a position of strength?

If he wants to maintain the military positions that Russia has taken in Ukraine at that point, it is not to withdraw, but to stabilize. The new president would buy time and say to his own audience: we are not taking a step back now, nor a step forward, but stabilizing the situation. Stability is something that always resonates with the Russian people.

Don’t see a violent fall?

I think that’s unlikely. Who would take such an action? Warmongers like Kadyrov and Prigozhin have made headlines in recent months. However, neither has power in the Kremlin. They know very well there that they are bandits with blood on their hands. When Yevgeny Prigozhin himself recently stepped into the limelight, a video surfaced with compromising accounts of his imprisonment in the 1990s. This gave him the signal: don’t stick your head out too far!

How will the war end?

I imagine there will be secret negotiations. The Ukrainian army is pretty exhausted. The situation is this: both sides are too weak to win. And too strong to lose. Secret negotiations were probably conducted before the Russian withdrawal from Kherson. At that point, a win-win situation was identified: the Russians are allowed to safely withdraw their soldiers across the Dnieper and the Ukrainians regain ground with relative ease. Similar secret negotiations could lead to a management of the conflict if there is a successor to Putin.

You are convinced that Putin will step down by 2024 at the latest.

It’s my guess. Putin has become toxic in the Kremlin leadership milieu. It is clear to everyone that there is literally no state to be achieved with Putin, either in domestic or foreign policy. The situation is extremely fragile. It seems plausible to me that the ruling elite wants to negotiate the modalities of a soft departure for the president. (cpf)